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Markov chain models for threshold exceedances.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

<mark>Journal publication date</mark>1997
Issue number2
Number of pages20
Pages (from-to)249-268
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English


In recent research on extreme value statistics, there has been an extensive development of threshold methods, first in the univariate case and subsequently in the multivariate case as well. In this paper, an alternative methodology for extreme values of univariate time series is developed, by assuming that the time series is Markovian and using bivariate extreme value theory to suggest appropriate models for the transition distributions. A new likelihood representation for threshold methods is presented which we apply to a Markovian time series. An important motivation for developing this kind of theory is the possibility of calculating probability distributions for functionals of extreme events. We address this issue by showing how a theory of compound Poisson limits for additive functionals can be combined with simulation to obtain numerical solutions for problems of practical interest. The methods are illustrated by application to temperature data.