Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling the seasonality of extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico
AU - Jonathan, P.
AU - Ewans, K.
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - Statistics of storm peaks over threshold depend typically on a number of covariates including location, season, and storm direction. Here, a nonhomogeneous Poisson model is adopted to characterize storm peak events with respect to season for two Gulf of Mexico locations. The behavior of storm peak significant wave height over threshold is characterized using a generalized Pareto model, the parameters of which vary smoothly with season using a Fourier form. The rate of occurrence of storm peaks is also modeled using a Poisson model with rate varying with season. A seasonally varying extreme value threshold is estimated independently. The degree of smoothness of extreme value shape and scale and the Poisson rate with season are regulated by roughness-penalized maximum likelihood; the optimal value of roughness is selected by cross validation. Despite the fact that only the peak significant wave height event for each storm is used for modeling, the influence of the whole period of a storm on design extremes for any seasonal interval is modeled using the concept of storm dissipation, providing a consistent means to estimate design criteria for arbitrary seasonal intervals. The characteristics of the 100 year storm peak significant wave height, estimated using the seasonal model, are examined and compared with those estimated ignoring seasonality. © 2011 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.
AB - Statistics of storm peaks over threshold depend typically on a number of covariates including location, season, and storm direction. Here, a nonhomogeneous Poisson model is adopted to characterize storm peak events with respect to season for two Gulf of Mexico locations. The behavior of storm peak significant wave height over threshold is characterized using a generalized Pareto model, the parameters of which vary smoothly with season using a Fourier form. The rate of occurrence of storm peaks is also modeled using a Poisson model with rate varying with season. A seasonally varying extreme value threshold is estimated independently. The degree of smoothness of extreme value shape and scale and the Poisson rate with season are regulated by roughness-penalized maximum likelihood; the optimal value of roughness is selected by cross validation. Despite the fact that only the peak significant wave height event for each storm is used for modeling, the influence of the whole period of a storm on design extremes for any seasonal interval is modeled using the concept of storm dissipation, providing a consistent means to estimate design criteria for arbitrary seasonal intervals. The characteristics of the 100 year storm peak significant wave height, estimated using the seasonal model, are examined and compared with those estimated ignoring seasonality. © 2011 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.
KW - Covariates
KW - Cross validation
KW - Design criterion
KW - Extreme value
KW - Extreme waves
KW - Fourier
KW - Gulf of Mexico
KW - Nonhomogeneous poisson
KW - Optimal values
KW - Pareto model
KW - Peaks over threshold
KW - Penalized maximum likelihood
KW - Poisson model
KW - Seasonal models
KW - Seasonality
KW - Significant wave height
KW - Storm direction
KW - Maximum likelihood
KW - Water waves
KW - Storms
KW - air-sea interaction
KW - dissipation
KW - estimation method
KW - Fourier transform
KW - numerical model
KW - Poisson ratio
KW - seasonality
KW - storm
KW - threshold
KW - wave
KW - Atlantic Ocean
U2 - 10.1115/1.4002045
DO - 10.1115/1.4002045
M3 - Journal article
VL - 133
JO - Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
JF - Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
SN - 0892-7219
IS - 2
M1 - 021104
ER -