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Modeling the seasonality of extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published

Standard

Modeling the seasonality of extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico. / Jonathan, P.; Ewans, K.

In: Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Vol. 133, No. 2, 021104, 2010.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Jonathan, P & Ewans, K 2010, 'Modeling the seasonality of extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico', Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, vol. 133, no. 2, 021104. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4002045

APA

Jonathan, P., & Ewans, K. (2010). Modeling the seasonality of extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 133(2), [021104]. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4002045

Vancouver

Jonathan P, Ewans K. Modeling the seasonality of extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. 2010;133(2):021104. doi: 10.1115/1.4002045

Author

Jonathan, P. ; Ewans, K. / Modeling the seasonality of extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico. In: Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. 2010 ; Vol. 133, No. 2.

Bibtex

@article{7d7dbb9f630d40b1921f10993146dd1b,
title = "Modeling the seasonality of extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico",
abstract = "Statistics of storm peaks over threshold depend typically on a number of covariates including location, season, and storm direction. Here, a nonhomogeneous Poisson model is adopted to characterize storm peak events with respect to season for two Gulf of Mexico locations. The behavior of storm peak significant wave height over threshold is characterized using a generalized Pareto model, the parameters of which vary smoothly with season using a Fourier form. The rate of occurrence of storm peaks is also modeled using a Poisson model with rate varying with season. A seasonally varying extreme value threshold is estimated independently. The degree of smoothness of extreme value shape and scale and the Poisson rate with season are regulated by roughness-penalized maximum likelihood; the optimal value of roughness is selected by cross validation. Despite the fact that only the peak significant wave height event for each storm is used for modeling, the influence of the whole period of a storm on design extremes for any seasonal interval is modeled using the concept of storm dissipation, providing a consistent means to estimate design criteria for arbitrary seasonal intervals. The characteristics of the 100 year storm peak significant wave height, estimated using the seasonal model, are examined and compared with those estimated ignoring seasonality. {\textcopyright} 2011 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.",
keywords = "Covariates, Cross validation, Design criterion, Extreme value, Extreme waves, Fourier, Gulf of Mexico, Nonhomogeneous poisson, Optimal values, Pareto model, Peaks over threshold, Penalized maximum likelihood, Poisson model, Seasonal models, Seasonality, Significant wave height, Storm direction, Maximum likelihood, Water waves, Storms, air-sea interaction, dissipation, estimation method, Fourier transform, numerical model, Poisson ratio, seasonality, storm, threshold, wave, Atlantic Ocean",
author = "P. Jonathan and K. Ewans",
year = "2010",
doi = "10.1115/1.4002045",
language = "English",
volume = "133",
journal = "Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering",
issn = "0892-7219",
publisher = "American Society of Mechanical Engineers(ASME)",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling the seasonality of extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico

AU - Jonathan, P.

AU - Ewans, K.

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - Statistics of storm peaks over threshold depend typically on a number of covariates including location, season, and storm direction. Here, a nonhomogeneous Poisson model is adopted to characterize storm peak events with respect to season for two Gulf of Mexico locations. The behavior of storm peak significant wave height over threshold is characterized using a generalized Pareto model, the parameters of which vary smoothly with season using a Fourier form. The rate of occurrence of storm peaks is also modeled using a Poisson model with rate varying with season. A seasonally varying extreme value threshold is estimated independently. The degree of smoothness of extreme value shape and scale and the Poisson rate with season are regulated by roughness-penalized maximum likelihood; the optimal value of roughness is selected by cross validation. Despite the fact that only the peak significant wave height event for each storm is used for modeling, the influence of the whole period of a storm on design extremes for any seasonal interval is modeled using the concept of storm dissipation, providing a consistent means to estimate design criteria for arbitrary seasonal intervals. The characteristics of the 100 year storm peak significant wave height, estimated using the seasonal model, are examined and compared with those estimated ignoring seasonality. © 2011 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

AB - Statistics of storm peaks over threshold depend typically on a number of covariates including location, season, and storm direction. Here, a nonhomogeneous Poisson model is adopted to characterize storm peak events with respect to season for two Gulf of Mexico locations. The behavior of storm peak significant wave height over threshold is characterized using a generalized Pareto model, the parameters of which vary smoothly with season using a Fourier form. The rate of occurrence of storm peaks is also modeled using a Poisson model with rate varying with season. A seasonally varying extreme value threshold is estimated independently. The degree of smoothness of extreme value shape and scale and the Poisson rate with season are regulated by roughness-penalized maximum likelihood; the optimal value of roughness is selected by cross validation. Despite the fact that only the peak significant wave height event for each storm is used for modeling, the influence of the whole period of a storm on design extremes for any seasonal interval is modeled using the concept of storm dissipation, providing a consistent means to estimate design criteria for arbitrary seasonal intervals. The characteristics of the 100 year storm peak significant wave height, estimated using the seasonal model, are examined and compared with those estimated ignoring seasonality. © 2011 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

KW - Covariates

KW - Cross validation

KW - Design criterion

KW - Extreme value

KW - Extreme waves

KW - Fourier

KW - Gulf of Mexico

KW - Nonhomogeneous poisson

KW - Optimal values

KW - Pareto model

KW - Peaks over threshold

KW - Penalized maximum likelihood

KW - Poisson model

KW - Seasonal models

KW - Seasonality

KW - Significant wave height

KW - Storm direction

KW - Maximum likelihood

KW - Water waves

KW - Storms

KW - air-sea interaction

KW - dissipation

KW - estimation method

KW - Fourier transform

KW - numerical model

KW - Poisson ratio

KW - seasonality

KW - storm

KW - threshold

KW - wave

KW - Atlantic Ocean

U2 - 10.1115/1.4002045

DO - 10.1115/1.4002045

M3 - Journal article

VL - 133

JO - Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering

JF - Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering

SN - 0892-7219

IS - 2

M1 - 021104

ER -