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Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
  • Mark J. Dixon
  • Stuart G. Coles
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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>1997
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)
Issue number2
Volume46
Number of pages16
Pages (from-to)265-280
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

A parametric model is developed and fitted to English league and cup football data from 1992 to 1995. The model is motivated by an aim to exploit potential inefficiencies in the association football betting market, and this is examined using bookmakers' odds from 1995 to 1996. The technique is based on a Poisson regression model but is complicated by the data structure and the dynamic nature of teams' performances. Maximum likelihood estimates are shown to be computationally obtainable, and the model is shown to have a positive return when used as the basis of a betting strategy.