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Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
  • Sam Moore
  • Edward M. Hill
  • Louise Dyson
  • Michael J Tildesley
  • Matt Keeling
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Article numbere1008849
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>6/05/2021
<mark>Journal</mark>PLoS Computational Biology
Issue number5
Volume17
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission-successfully reducing the reproductive number R below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible individuals that remain, complete relaxation of controls is likely to generate a substantial further outbreak. Vaccination remains the only foreseeable means of both containing the infection and returning to normal interactions and behaviour. Here, we consider the optimal targeting of vaccination within the UK, with the aim of minimising future deaths or quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses. We show that, for a range of assumptions on the action and efficacy of the vaccine, targeting older age groups first is optimal and may be sufficient to stem the epidemic if the vaccine prevents transmission as well as disease.