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Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era. / Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group.
In: Nature Communications, Vol. 13, No. 1, 4879, 31.12.2022.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group 2022, 'Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era', Nature Communications, vol. 13, no. 1, 4879. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y

APA

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group (2022). Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era. Nature Communications, 13(1), Article 4879. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y

Vancouver

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group. Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era. Nature Communications. 2022 Dec 31;13(1):4879. Epub 2022 Aug 19. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y

Author

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group. / Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era. In: Nature Communications. 2022 ; Vol. 13, No. 1.

Bibtex

@article{2aa401ba37554857bf8e5af5c4c9fe8c,
title = "Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era",
abstract = "England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.",
author = "{Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group} and Barnard, {Rosanna C.} and Davies, {Nicholas G.} and Munday, {James D.} and Rachel Lowe and Knight, {Gwenan M.} and Leclerc, {Quentin J.} and Tully, {Damien C.} and David Hodgson and Rachael Pung and Joel Hellewell and Mihaly Koltai and David Simons and Kaja Abbas and Kucharski, {Adam J.} and Procter, {Simon R.} and Sandmann, {Frank G.} and Pearson, {Carl A.B.} and Kiesha Prem and Alicia Showering and Meakin, {Sophie R.} and Kathleen O{\textquoteright}Reilly and McCarthy, {Ciara V.} and Matthew Quaife and Wong, {Kerry L.M.} and Yalda Jafari and Deol, {Arminder K.} and Houben, {Rein M.G.J.} and Charlie Diamond and Thibaut Jombart and Villabona-Arenas, {C. Julian} and William Waites and Eggo, {Rosalind M.} and Akira Endo and Gibbs, {Hamish P.} and Petra Klepac and Jack Williams and Quilty, {Billy J.} and Oliver Brady and Emery, {Jon C.} and Atkins, {Katherine E.} and Chapman, {Lloyd A.C.} and Katharine Sherratt and Sam Abbott and Bosse, {Nikos I.} and Paul Mee and Sebastian Funk and Jiayao Lei and Yang Liu and Stefan Flasche and Rudge, {James W.}",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",
year = "2022",
month = dec,
day = "31",
doi = "10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
journal = "Nature Communications",
issn = "2041-1723",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era

AU - Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group

AU - Barnard, Rosanna C.

AU - Davies, Nicholas G.

AU - Munday, James D.

AU - Lowe, Rachel

AU - Knight, Gwenan M.

AU - Leclerc, Quentin J.

AU - Tully, Damien C.

AU - Hodgson, David

AU - Pung, Rachael

AU - Hellewell, Joel

AU - Koltai, Mihaly

AU - Simons, David

AU - Abbas, Kaja

AU - Kucharski, Adam J.

AU - Procter, Simon R.

AU - Sandmann, Frank G.

AU - Pearson, Carl A.B.

AU - Prem, Kiesha

AU - Showering, Alicia

AU - Meakin, Sophie R.

AU - O’Reilly, Kathleen

AU - McCarthy, Ciara V.

AU - Quaife, Matthew

AU - Wong, Kerry L.M.

AU - Jafari, Yalda

AU - Deol, Arminder K.

AU - Houben, Rein M.G.J.

AU - Diamond, Charlie

AU - Jombart, Thibaut

AU - Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian

AU - Waites, William

AU - Eggo, Rosalind M.

AU - Endo, Akira

AU - Gibbs, Hamish P.

AU - Klepac, Petra

AU - Williams, Jack

AU - Quilty, Billy J.

AU - Brady, Oliver

AU - Emery, Jon C.

AU - Atkins, Katherine E.

AU - Chapman, Lloyd A.C.

AU - Sherratt, Katharine

AU - Abbott, Sam

AU - Bosse, Nikos I.

AU - Mee, Paul

AU - Funk, Sebastian

AU - Lei, Jiayao

AU - Liu, Yang

AU - Flasche, Stefan

AU - Rudge, James W.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

PY - 2022/12/31

Y1 - 2022/12/31

N2 - England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.

AB - England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y

DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 35986002

AN - SCOPUS:85136912315

VL - 13

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

IS - 1

M1 - 4879

ER -