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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Natural short-lived halogens exert an indirect cooling effect on climate
AU - Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso
AU - Fernandez, Rafael P.
AU - Li, Qinyi
AU - Cuevas, Carlos A.
AU - Fu, Xiao
AU - Kinnison, Douglas E.
AU - Tilmes, Simone
AU - Mahajan, Anoop S.
AU - Gómez Martín, Juan Carlos
AU - Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando
AU - Hossaini, Ryan
AU - Plane, John M. C.
AU - Myhre, Gunnar
AU - Lamarque, Jean-François
PY - 2023/6/28
Y1 - 2023/6/28
N2 - Observational evidence shows the ubiquitous presence of ocean-emitted short-lived halogens in the global atmosphere1–3. Natural emissions of these chemical compounds have been anthropogenically amplified since pre-industrial times4–6, while, in addition, anthropogenic short-lived halocarbons are currently being emitted to the atmosphere7,8. Despite their widespread distribution in the atmosphere, the combined impact of these species on Earth’s radiative balance remains unknown. Here we show that short-lived halogens exert a substantial indirect cooling effect at present (−0.13 ± 0.03 watts per square metre) that arises from halogen-mediated radiative perturbations of ozone (−0.24 ± 0.02 watts per square metre), compensated by those from methane (+0.09 ± 0.01 watts per square metre), aerosols (+0.03 ± 0.01 watts per square metre) and stratospheric water vapour (+0.011 ± 0.001 watts per square metre). Importantly, this substantial cooling effect has increased since 1750 by −0.05 ± 0.03 watts per square metre (61 per cent), driven by the anthropogenic amplification of natural halogen emissions, and is projected to change further (18–31 per cent by 2100) depending on climate warming projections and socioeconomic development. We conclude that the indirect radiative effect due to short-lived halogens should now be incorporated into climate models to provide a more realistic natural baseline of Earth’s climate system.
AB - Observational evidence shows the ubiquitous presence of ocean-emitted short-lived halogens in the global atmosphere1–3. Natural emissions of these chemical compounds have been anthropogenically amplified since pre-industrial times4–6, while, in addition, anthropogenic short-lived halocarbons are currently being emitted to the atmosphere7,8. Despite their widespread distribution in the atmosphere, the combined impact of these species on Earth’s radiative balance remains unknown. Here we show that short-lived halogens exert a substantial indirect cooling effect at present (−0.13 ± 0.03 watts per square metre) that arises from halogen-mediated radiative perturbations of ozone (−0.24 ± 0.02 watts per square metre), compensated by those from methane (+0.09 ± 0.01 watts per square metre), aerosols (+0.03 ± 0.01 watts per square metre) and stratospheric water vapour (+0.011 ± 0.001 watts per square metre). Importantly, this substantial cooling effect has increased since 1750 by −0.05 ± 0.03 watts per square metre (61 per cent), driven by the anthropogenic amplification of natural halogen emissions, and is projected to change further (18–31 per cent by 2100) depending on climate warming projections and socioeconomic development. We conclude that the indirect radiative effect due to short-lived halogens should now be incorporated into climate models to provide a more realistic natural baseline of Earth’s climate system.
U2 - 10.1038/s41586-023-06119-z
DO - 10.1038/s41586-023-06119-z
M3 - Journal article
VL - 618
SP - 967
EP - 973
JO - Nature
JF - Nature
SN - 1476-4687
IS - 7967
ER -