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Percentage Errors Can Ruin Your Day (and Rolling the Dice Shows How)

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>2011
<mark>Journal</mark>Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting
Issue number23
Number of pages7
Pages (from-to)21-27
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Foresight has printed many articles about the calculation, interpretation, and especially the dangers of percentage error metrics, such as the MAPE. Stephan and Roland now add to the list of dangers, showing how you can be led astray if you use the MAPE to select a best forecasting method or to reward forecast accuracy. Minimizing the MAPE is often not a good idea. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011