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  • Westerberg et al. Final Revision

    Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 01/08/2017, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2017.1356926

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    Available under license: CC BY-NC: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

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Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

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  • Ida K. Westerberg
  • Giuliano Di Baldassarre
  • Keith J. Beven
  • Gemma Coxon
  • Tobias Krueger
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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>18/08/2017
<mark>Journal</mark>Hydrological Sciences Journal
Issue number11
Volume62
Number of pages9
Pages (from-to)1705-1713
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date1/08/17
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources–and different perceptions thereof–explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.

Bibliographic note

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 01/08/2017, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2017.1356926