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Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics

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Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. / Dyson, Louise; Hill, Edward M.; Moore, Sam et al.
In: Nature Communications, Vol. 12, No. 1, 5730, 30.09.2021.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Dyson, L, Hill, EM, Moore, S, Curran-Sebastian, J, Tildesley, MJ, Lythgoe, KA, House, T, Pellis, L & Keeling, M 2021, 'Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics', Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 1, 5730. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7

APA

Dyson, L., Hill, E. M., Moore, S., Curran-Sebastian, J., Tildesley, M. J., Lythgoe, K. A., House, T., Pellis, L., & Keeling, M. (2021). Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. Nature Communications, 12(1), Article 5730. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7

Vancouver

Dyson L, Hill EM, Moore S, Curran-Sebastian J, Tildesley MJ, Lythgoe KA et al. Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. Nature Communications. 2021 Sept 30;12(1):5730. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7

Author

Dyson, Louise ; Hill, Edward M. ; Moore, Sam et al. / Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. In: Nature Communications. 2021 ; Vol. 12, No. 1.

Bibtex

@article{8eb4f271b19648288e0c6d3e48495535,
title = "Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics",
abstract = "Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed.",
author = "Louise Dyson and Hill, {Edward M.} and Sam Moore and Jacob Curran-Sebastian and Tildesley, {Michael J} and Lythgoe, {Katrina A.} and Thomas House and Lorenzo Pellis and Matt Keeling",
year = "2021",
month = sep,
day = "30",
doi = "10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7",
language = "English",
volume = "12",
journal = "Nature Communications",
issn = "2041-1723",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics

AU - Dyson, Louise

AU - Hill, Edward M.

AU - Moore, Sam

AU - Curran-Sebastian, Jacob

AU - Tildesley, Michael J

AU - Lythgoe, Katrina A.

AU - House, Thomas

AU - Pellis, Lorenzo

AU - Keeling, Matt

PY - 2021/9/30

Y1 - 2021/9/30

N2 - Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed.

AB - Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed.

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7

DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34593807

VL - 12

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

IS - 1

M1 - 5730

ER -