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    Rights statement: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: White, C. J., Carlsen, H., Robertson, A. W., Klein, R. J.T., Lazo, J. K., Kumar, A., Vitart, F., Coughlan de Perez, E., Ray, A. J., Murray, V., Bharwani, S., MacLeod, D., James, R., Fleming, L., Morse, A. P., Eggen, B., Graham, R., Kjellström, E., Becker, E., Pegion, K. V., Holbrook, N. J., McEvoy, D., Depledge, M., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Brown, T. J., Street, R., Jones, L., Remenyi, T. A., Hodgson-Johnston, I., Buontempo, C., Lamb, R., Meinke, H., Arheimer, B. and Zebiak, S. E. (2017), Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Met. Apps, 24: 315–325. doi:10.1002/met.1654 which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1654/abstract This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

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Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions

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Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. / White, Christopher J.; Carlsen, Henrik; Robertson, Andrew W. et al.
In: Meteorological Applications, Vol. 24, No. 3, 07.2017, p. 315-325.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

White, CJ, Carlsen, H, Robertson, AW, Klein, RJT, Lazo, JK, Vitart, F, Coughlan De Perez, E, Ray, AJ, Murray, V, Bharwani, S, Macleod, D, James, R, Fleming, L, Morse, AP, Eggen, B, Graham, R, Kjellström, E, Becker, E, Pegion, KV, Holbrook, NJ, Mcevoy, D, Depledge, M, Perkins-kirkpatrick, S, Brown, TJ, Street, R, Jones, L, Remenyi, TA, Hodgson-johnston, I, Buontempo, C, Lamb, R, Meinke, H, Arheimer, B & Zebiak, SE 2017, 'Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions', Meteorological Applications, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 315-325. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1654

APA

White, C. J., Carlsen, H., Robertson, A. W., Klein, R. J. T., Lazo, J. K., Vitart, F., Coughlan De Perez, E., Ray, A. J., Murray, V., Bharwani, S., Macleod, D., James, R., Fleming, L., Morse, A. P., Eggen, B., Graham, R., Kjellström, E., Becker, E., Pegion, K. V., ... Zebiak, S. E. (2017). Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications, 24(3), 315-325. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1654

Vancouver

White CJ, Carlsen H, Robertson AW, Klein RJT, Lazo JK, Vitart F et al. Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications. 2017 Jul;24(3):315-325. Epub 2017 Apr 6. doi: 10.1002/met.1654

Author

White, Christopher J. ; Carlsen, Henrik ; Robertson, Andrew W. et al. / Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. In: Meteorological Applications. 2017 ; Vol. 24, No. 3. pp. 315-325.

Bibtex

@article{e300d580a7cf420e85f22b03e4b55651,
title = "Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions",
abstract = "While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications-relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision-making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of {\textquoteleft}climate services{\textquoteright} approaches for extended-range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application-ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.",
author = "White, {Christopher J.} and Henrik Carlsen and Robertson, {Andrew W.} and Klein, {Richard J.t.} and Lazo, {Jeffrey K.} and Frederic Vitart and {Coughlan De Perez}, Erin and Ray, {Andrea J.} and Virginia Murray and Sukaina Bharwani and Dave Macleod and Rachel James and Lora Fleming and Morse, {Andrew P.} and Bernd Eggen and Richard Graham and Erik Kjellstr{\"o}m and Emily Becker and Pegion, {Kathleen V.} and Holbrook, {Neil J.} and Darryn Mcevoy and Michael Depledge and Sarah Perkins-kirkpatrick and Brown, {Timothy J.} and Roger Street and Lindsey Jones and Remenyi, {Tomas A.} and Indi Hodgson-johnston and Carlo Buontempo and Rob Lamb and Holger Meinke and Berit Arheimer and Zebiak, {Stephen E.}",
note = "This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: White, C. J., Carlsen, H., Robertson, A. W., Klein, R. J.T., Lazo, J. K., Kumar, A., Vitart, F., Coughlan de Perez, E., Ray, A. J., Murray, V., Bharwani, S., MacLeod, D., James, R., Fleming, L., Morse, A. P., Eggen, B., Graham, R., Kjellstr{\"o}m, E., Becker, E., Pegion, K. V., Holbrook, N. J., McEvoy, D., Depledge, M., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Brown, T. J., Street, R., Jones, L., Remenyi, T. A., Hodgson-Johnston, I., Buontempo, C., Lamb, R., Meinke, H., Arheimer, B. and Zebiak, S. E. (2017), Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Met. Apps, 24: 315–325. doi:10.1002/met.1654 which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1654/abstract This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.",
year = "2017",
month = jul,
doi = "10.1002/met.1654",
language = "English",
volume = "24",
pages = "315--325",
journal = "Meteorological Applications",
issn = "1350-4827",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions

AU - White, Christopher J.

AU - Carlsen, Henrik

AU - Robertson, Andrew W.

AU - Klein, Richard J.t.

AU - Lazo, Jeffrey K.

AU - Vitart, Frederic

AU - Coughlan De Perez, Erin

AU - Ray, Andrea J.

AU - Murray, Virginia

AU - Bharwani, Sukaina

AU - Macleod, Dave

AU - James, Rachel

AU - Fleming, Lora

AU - Morse, Andrew P.

AU - Eggen, Bernd

AU - Graham, Richard

AU - Kjellström, Erik

AU - Becker, Emily

AU - Pegion, Kathleen V.

AU - Holbrook, Neil J.

AU - Mcevoy, Darryn

AU - Depledge, Michael

AU - Perkins-kirkpatrick, Sarah

AU - Brown, Timothy J.

AU - Street, Roger

AU - Jones, Lindsey

AU - Remenyi, Tomas A.

AU - Hodgson-johnston, Indi

AU - Buontempo, Carlo

AU - Lamb, Rob

AU - Meinke, Holger

AU - Arheimer, Berit

AU - Zebiak, Stephen E.

N1 - This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: White, C. J., Carlsen, H., Robertson, A. W., Klein, R. J.T., Lazo, J. K., Kumar, A., Vitart, F., Coughlan de Perez, E., Ray, A. J., Murray, V., Bharwani, S., MacLeod, D., James, R., Fleming, L., Morse, A. P., Eggen, B., Graham, R., Kjellström, E., Becker, E., Pegion, K. V., Holbrook, N. J., McEvoy, D., Depledge, M., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Brown, T. J., Street, R., Jones, L., Remenyi, T. A., Hodgson-Johnston, I., Buontempo, C., Lamb, R., Meinke, H., Arheimer, B. and Zebiak, S. E. (2017), Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Met. Apps, 24: 315–325. doi:10.1002/met.1654 which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1654/abstract This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

PY - 2017/7

Y1 - 2017/7

N2 - While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications-relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision-making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended-range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application-ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.

AB - While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications-relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision-making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended-range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application-ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.

U2 - 10.1002/met.1654

DO - 10.1002/met.1654

M3 - Journal article

VL - 24

SP - 315

EP - 325

JO - Meteorological Applications

JF - Meteorological Applications

SN - 1350-4827

IS - 3

ER -