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Predicting reconviction: do some predictors fade with length of follow-up?

Research output: Contribution to conference - Without ISBN/ISSN › Conference paper

Published

Standard

Predicting reconviction: do some predictors fade with length of follow-up? / Francis, Brian; Soothill, Keith; Humphreys, Leslie.
2012. 1-18 Paper presented at American Society of Criminology, Chicago, United States.

Research output: Contribution to conference - Without ISBN/ISSN › Conference paper

Harvard

Francis, B, Soothill, K & Humphreys, L 2012, 'Predicting reconviction: do some predictors fade with length of follow-up?', Paper presented at American Society of Criminology, Chicago, United States, 14/11/12 - 17/11/12 pp. 1-18.

APA

Francis, B., Soothill, K., & Humphreys, L. (2012). Predicting reconviction: do some predictors fade with length of follow-up?. 1-18. Paper presented at American Society of Criminology, Chicago, United States.

Vancouver

Francis B, Soothill K, Humphreys L. Predicting reconviction: do some predictors fade with length of follow-up?. 2012. Paper presented at American Society of Criminology, Chicago, United States.

Author

Francis, Brian ; Soothill, Keith ; Humphreys, Leslie. / Predicting reconviction : do some predictors fade with length of follow-up?. Paper presented at American Society of Criminology, Chicago, United States.18 p.

Bibtex

@conference{052622c64cbf49dcbede18274a2bd2a1,
title = "Predicting reconviction: do some predictors fade with length of follow-up?",
abstract = "Long-term follow-up studies typically follow up individuals convicted of a particular target offence repeatedly and regularly, updating their conviction status. This is especially valuable for specialist forms of offence such as sexual offending, where the risk of reoffending appears to stay relatively high even after a long conviction free period. Conventional approaches to such data would use logistic regression, assuming that covariates collected at the target offence still have predictive power many years later. However, it is likely that the effect of many covariates will fade over time. This talk presents methods for operationalising time-varying effects in hazard rate analysis for covariates measured at a single point in time, using as illustration a sample of middle-class offenders who were released in the early 1970s and followed up at 10 years, 20 years and 35 years. We show that while previous criminal history variables still have predictive power many years after release, other demographic variables which are important in short term reconviction appear to fade with time",
author = "Brian Francis and Keith Soothill and Leslie Humphreys",
year = "2012",
month = nov,
language = "English",
pages = "1--18",
note = "American Society of Criminology ; Conference date: 14-11-2012 Through 17-11-2012",

}

RIS

TY - CONF

T1 - Predicting reconviction

T2 - American Society of Criminology

AU - Francis, Brian

AU - Soothill, Keith

AU - Humphreys, Leslie

PY - 2012/11

Y1 - 2012/11

N2 - Long-term follow-up studies typically follow up individuals convicted of a particular target offence repeatedly and regularly, updating their conviction status. This is especially valuable for specialist forms of offence such as sexual offending, where the risk of reoffending appears to stay relatively high even after a long conviction free period. Conventional approaches to such data would use logistic regression, assuming that covariates collected at the target offence still have predictive power many years later. However, it is likely that the effect of many covariates will fade over time. This talk presents methods for operationalising time-varying effects in hazard rate analysis for covariates measured at a single point in time, using as illustration a sample of middle-class offenders who were released in the early 1970s and followed up at 10 years, 20 years and 35 years. We show that while previous criminal history variables still have predictive power many years after release, other demographic variables which are important in short term reconviction appear to fade with time

AB - Long-term follow-up studies typically follow up individuals convicted of a particular target offence repeatedly and regularly, updating their conviction status. This is especially valuable for specialist forms of offence such as sexual offending, where the risk of reoffending appears to stay relatively high even after a long conviction free period. Conventional approaches to such data would use logistic regression, assuming that covariates collected at the target offence still have predictive power many years later. However, it is likely that the effect of many covariates will fade over time. This talk presents methods for operationalising time-varying effects in hazard rate analysis for covariates measured at a single point in time, using as illustration a sample of middle-class offenders who were released in the early 1970s and followed up at 10 years, 20 years and 35 years. We show that while previous criminal history variables still have predictive power many years after release, other demographic variables which are important in short term reconviction appear to fade with time

M3 - Conference paper

SP - 1

EP - 18

Y2 - 14 November 2012 through 17 November 2012

ER -