Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > Retrospective change detection for binary time ...
View graph of relations

Retrospective change detection for binary time series models

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
Close
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>02/2014
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference
Volume145
Number of pages11
Pages (from-to)102-112
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Detection of changes in health care performance, financial markets, and industrial processes have recently gained momentum due to the increased availability of complex data in real-time. As a consequence, there has been a growing demand in developing statistically rigorous methodologies for change-point detection in various types of data. In many practical situations, the data being monitored for the purpose of detecting changes are autocorrelated binary time series. We propose a new statistical procedure based on the partial likelihood score process for the retrospective detection of change in the coefficients of a logistic regression model with AR(p)-type autocorrelations. We carry out some Monte Carlo experiments to evaluate the power of the detection procedure as well as its probability of false alarm (type I error). We illustrate the utility using data on 30-day mortality rates after cardiac surgery and to data on IBM share transactions.