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    Rights statement: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Fildes, R. (2022). Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021). Futures & Foresight Science, 4, e112. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.112 which has been published in final form at http://https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.112 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

    Accepted author manuscript, 26.7 KB, Word document

    Available under license: CC BY-NC: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

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Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article

Published
Article numbere112
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>31/03/2022
<mark>Journal</mark>Futures and Foresight Science
Issue number1
Volume4
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date13/12/21
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

This commentary revisits an early book review by the author of Kees van der Heijden’s influential book, ‘Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation’, highlighting the continuing neglect of the role of forecasting in scenario construction. In addition, there still remains considerable ambiguity as to whether scenarios offer more than plausible stories. The review highlights the need to resolve these ambiguities in the scenario research literature through a better understanding of the links between forecasting and scenario construction. The benefit of success would be a greater understanding of long term uncertainty.

Bibliographic note

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Fildes, R. (2022). Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021). Futures & Foresight Science, 4, e112. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.112 which has been published in final form at http://https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.112 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.