Rights statement: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Fildes, R. (2022). Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021). Futures & Foresight Science, 4, e112. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.112 which has been published in final form at http://https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.112 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
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Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)
AU - Fildes, Robert
N1 - This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Fildes, R. (2022). Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021). Futures & Foresight Science, 4, e112. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.112 which has been published in final form at http://https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.112 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
PY - 2022/3/31
Y1 - 2022/3/31
N2 - This commentary revisits an early book review by the author of Kees van der Heijden’s influential book, ‘Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation’, highlighting the continuing neglect of the role of forecasting in scenario construction. In addition, there still remains considerable ambiguity as to whether scenarios offer more than plausible stories. The review highlights the need to resolve these ambiguities in the scenario research literature through a better understanding of the links between forecasting and scenario construction. The benefit of success would be a greater understanding of long term uncertainty.
AB - This commentary revisits an early book review by the author of Kees van der Heijden’s influential book, ‘Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation’, highlighting the continuing neglect of the role of forecasting in scenario construction. In addition, there still remains considerable ambiguity as to whether scenarios offer more than plausible stories. The review highlights the need to resolve these ambiguities in the scenario research literature through a better understanding of the links between forecasting and scenario construction. The benefit of success would be a greater understanding of long term uncertainty.
KW - Scenarios
KW - Forecasting
KW - Uncertainty
U2 - 10.1002/ffo2.112
DO - 10.1002/ffo2.112
M3 - Journal article
VL - 4
JO - Futures and Foresight Science
JF - Futures and Foresight Science
SN - 2573-5152
IS - 1
M1 - e112
ER -