Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

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Rights statement: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Fildes, R. (2022). Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021). Futures & Foresight Science, 4, e112. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.112 which has been published in final form at http://https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.112 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
Accepted author manuscript, 26.7 KB, Word document
Available under license: CC BY-NC: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

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https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.112
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Keywords

Scenarios, Forecasting, Uncertainty

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Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021). / Fildes, Robert.
In: Futures and Foresight Science, Vol. 4, No. 1, e112, 31.03.2022.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article

Bibtex

@article{eeafa89804fc47c6a4bf5884bbcff582,

title = "Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)",

abstract = "This commentary revisits an early book review by the author of Kees van der Heijden{\textquoteright}s influential book, {\textquoteleft}Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation{\textquoteright}, highlighting the continuing neglect of the role of forecasting in scenario construction. In addition, there still remains considerable ambiguity as to whether scenarios offer more than plausible stories. The review highlights the need to resolve these ambiguities in the scenario research literature through a better understanding of the links between forecasting and scenario construction. The benefit of success would be a greater understanding of long term uncertainty.",

keywords = "Scenarios, Forecasting, Uncertainty",

author = "Robert Fildes",

note = "This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Fildes, R. (2022). Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021). Futures & Foresight Science, 4, e112. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.112 which has been published in final form at http://https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.112 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving. ",

year = "2022",

month = mar,

day = "31",

doi = "10.1002/ffo2.112",

language = "English",

volume = "4",

journal = "Futures and Foresight Science",

issn = "2573-5152",

publisher = "Wiley",

number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

AU - Fildes, Robert

N1 - This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Fildes, R. (2022). Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021). Futures & Foresight Science, 4, e112. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.112 which has been published in final form at http://https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.112 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

PY - 2022/3/31

Y1 - 2022/3/31

N2 - This commentary revisits an early book review by the author of Kees van der Heijden’s influential book, ‘Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation’, highlighting the continuing neglect of the role of forecasting in scenario construction. In addition, there still remains considerable ambiguity as to whether scenarios offer more than plausible stories. The review highlights the need to resolve these ambiguities in the scenario research literature through a better understanding of the links between forecasting and scenario construction. The benefit of success would be a greater understanding of long term uncertainty.

AB - This commentary revisits an early book review by the author of Kees van der Heijden’s influential book, ‘Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation’, highlighting the continuing neglect of the role of forecasting in scenario construction. In addition, there still remains considerable ambiguity as to whether scenarios offer more than plausible stories. The review highlights the need to resolve these ambiguities in the scenario research literature through a better understanding of the links between forecasting and scenario construction. The benefit of success would be a greater understanding of long term uncertainty.

KW - Scenarios

KW - Forecasting

KW - Uncertainty

U2 - 10.1002/ffo2.112

DO - 10.1002/ffo2.112

M3 - Journal article

VL - 4

JO - Futures and Foresight Science

JF - Futures and Foresight Science

SN - 2573-5152

IS - 1

M1 - e112

ER -

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