Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Selection and estimation of component models for seasonal time series.
AU - Haywood, John
AU - Tunnicliffe Wilson, Granville
PY - 2000/9
Y1 - 2000/9
N2 - We present a method for investigating the evolution of trend and seasonality in an observed time series. A general model is fitted to a residual spectrum, using components to represent the seasonality. We show graphically how well the fitted spectrum captures the evidence for evolving seasonality associated with the different seasonal frequencies. We apply the method to model two time series and illustrate the resulting forecasts and seasonal adjustment for one series.
AB - We present a method for investigating the evolution of trend and seasonality in an observed time series. A general model is fitted to a residual spectrum, using components to represent the seasonality. We show graphically how well the fitted spectrum captures the evidence for evolving seasonality associated with the different seasonal frequencies. We apply the method to model two time series and illustrate the resulting forecasts and seasonal adjustment for one series.
KW - seasonal time series
KW - evolving seasonality
KW - spectrum components
KW - frequency domain estimation
U2 - 10.1002/1099-131X(200009)19:5<393::AID-FOR755>3.0.CO;2-6
DO - 10.1002/1099-131X(200009)19:5<393::AID-FOR755>3.0.CO;2-6
M3 - Journal article
VL - 19
SP - 393
EP - 417
JO - Journal of Forecasting
JF - Journal of Forecasting
SN - 0277-6693
IS - 5
ER -