Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > Spatial and seasonal variability of metocean de...

Electronic data

  • AnkEA19OMAE

    Accepted author manuscript, 2.95 MB, PDF document

Links

Text available via DOI:

View graph of relations

Spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the Southern South China Sea from covariate extreme value analysis

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSNConference contribution/Paperpeer-review

Published

Standard

Spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the Southern South China Sea from covariate extreme value analysis. / Anokhin, A.; Randell, D.; Ross, E.; Jonathan, Philip.

Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering. Vol. 7B ASME, 2019. OMAE2019-95913.

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSNConference contribution/Paperpeer-review

Harvard

Anokhin, A, Randell, D, Ross, E & Jonathan, P 2019, Spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the Southern South China Sea from covariate extreme value analysis. in Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering. vol. 7B, OMAE2019-95913, ASME, 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering, Glasgow, United Kingdom, 9/06/19. https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2019-95913

APA

Anokhin, A., Randell, D., Ross, E., & Jonathan, P. (2019). Spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the Southern South China Sea from covariate extreme value analysis. In Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering (Vol. 7B). [OMAE2019-95913] ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2019-95913

Vancouver

Anokhin A, Randell D, Ross E, Jonathan P. Spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the Southern South China Sea from covariate extreme value analysis. In Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering. Vol. 7B. ASME. 2019. OMAE2019-95913 https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2019-95913

Author

Anokhin, A. ; Randell, D. ; Ross, E. ; Jonathan, Philip. / Spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the Southern South China Sea from covariate extreme value analysis. Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering. Vol. 7B ASME, 2019.

Bibtex

@inproceedings{cdbcf27417c14669bb2a28a2c386c931,
title = "Spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the Southern South China Sea from covariate extreme value analysis",
abstract = "This paper describes spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the southern South China Sea. Non-stationary extreme value analysis was performed using the CEVA approach (Covariate Extreme Value Analysis,[1]) for a 59-year long SEAFINE hindcast of winds and waves, estimating metocean design criteria up to 10,000-year return period. Wind design criteria are mostly driven by large-scale monsoonal events; at higher return periods infrequent cyclonic events have strong influence on the tail of the extreme value distribution but confined to a limited geographical area. The CEVA analysis of waves showed much less dependence on the tropical cyclone events; the spatial metocean design criteria were smoother, mostly influenced by the monsoonal wind strength, fetch and local bathymetry. Return value estimates illustrate the strong seasonality of metocean design criteria, with boreal winter (December-February, Northeasterly monsoon) contributing most to the extremes, while April and May are the mildest months. Estimates for the ratio of 10,000/100-year return values are also presented, both for winds and waves. There is empirical evidence that the range of “typical” values of generalised Pareto shape parameter observed for Hs is different to that observed for wind speed. For this reason, an upper bound of +0.2 for generalised Pareto shape was specified for wind speed analysis, compared to 0.0 for Hs. In some cases, increase of upper bound for waves to 0.1 is justified, leading to slightly more conservative Hs values. We confirmed that the upper end point constraint was not too influential on the distributions of generalised Pareto shape parameter estimated. Nevertheless, it is apparent that specification of bounds for generalised Pareto shape is a critical, but problematic choice in metocean applications.",
author = "A. Anokhin and D. Randell and E. Ross and Philip Jonathan",
year = "2019",
month = nov,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1115/OMAE2019-95913",
language = "English",
isbn = "9780791858851",
volume = "7B",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering",
publisher = "ASME",
note = "38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering, OMAE 2019 ; Conference date: 09-06-2019 Through 14-06-2019",

}

RIS

TY - GEN

T1 - Spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the Southern South China Sea from covariate extreme value analysis

AU - Anokhin, A.

AU - Randell, D.

AU - Ross, E.

AU - Jonathan, Philip

PY - 2019/11/1

Y1 - 2019/11/1

N2 - This paper describes spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the southern South China Sea. Non-stationary extreme value analysis was performed using the CEVA approach (Covariate Extreme Value Analysis,[1]) for a 59-year long SEAFINE hindcast of winds and waves, estimating metocean design criteria up to 10,000-year return period. Wind design criteria are mostly driven by large-scale monsoonal events; at higher return periods infrequent cyclonic events have strong influence on the tail of the extreme value distribution but confined to a limited geographical area. The CEVA analysis of waves showed much less dependence on the tropical cyclone events; the spatial metocean design criteria were smoother, mostly influenced by the monsoonal wind strength, fetch and local bathymetry. Return value estimates illustrate the strong seasonality of metocean design criteria, with boreal winter (December-February, Northeasterly monsoon) contributing most to the extremes, while April and May are the mildest months. Estimates for the ratio of 10,000/100-year return values are also presented, both for winds and waves. There is empirical evidence that the range of “typical” values of generalised Pareto shape parameter observed for Hs is different to that observed for wind speed. For this reason, an upper bound of +0.2 for generalised Pareto shape was specified for wind speed analysis, compared to 0.0 for Hs. In some cases, increase of upper bound for waves to 0.1 is justified, leading to slightly more conservative Hs values. We confirmed that the upper end point constraint was not too influential on the distributions of generalised Pareto shape parameter estimated. Nevertheless, it is apparent that specification of bounds for generalised Pareto shape is a critical, but problematic choice in metocean applications.

AB - This paper describes spatial and seasonal variability of metocean design criteria in the southern South China Sea. Non-stationary extreme value analysis was performed using the CEVA approach (Covariate Extreme Value Analysis,[1]) for a 59-year long SEAFINE hindcast of winds and waves, estimating metocean design criteria up to 10,000-year return period. Wind design criteria are mostly driven by large-scale monsoonal events; at higher return periods infrequent cyclonic events have strong influence on the tail of the extreme value distribution but confined to a limited geographical area. The CEVA analysis of waves showed much less dependence on the tropical cyclone events; the spatial metocean design criteria were smoother, mostly influenced by the monsoonal wind strength, fetch and local bathymetry. Return value estimates illustrate the strong seasonality of metocean design criteria, with boreal winter (December-February, Northeasterly monsoon) contributing most to the extremes, while April and May are the mildest months. Estimates for the ratio of 10,000/100-year return values are also presented, both for winds and waves. There is empirical evidence that the range of “typical” values of generalised Pareto shape parameter observed for Hs is different to that observed for wind speed. For this reason, an upper bound of +0.2 for generalised Pareto shape was specified for wind speed analysis, compared to 0.0 for Hs. In some cases, increase of upper bound for waves to 0.1 is justified, leading to slightly more conservative Hs values. We confirmed that the upper end point constraint was not too influential on the distributions of generalised Pareto shape parameter estimated. Nevertheless, it is apparent that specification of bounds for generalised Pareto shape is a critical, but problematic choice in metocean applications.

U2 - 10.1115/OMAE2019-95913

DO - 10.1115/OMAE2019-95913

M3 - Conference contribution/Paper

SN - 9780791858851

VL - 7B

BT - Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering

PB - ASME

T2 - 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering

Y2 - 9 June 2019 through 14 June 2019

ER -