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Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario

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Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario. / Akritidis, Dimitris; Bacer, Sara; Zanis, Prodromos et al.
In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 19, No. 2, 024041, 09.02.2024.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Akritidis, D, Bacer, S, Zanis, P, Georgoulias, AK, Chowdhury, S, Horowitz, LW, Naik, V, O’Connor, FM, Keeble, J, Sager, PL, van Noije, T, Zhou, P, Turnock, S, West, JJ, Lelieveld, J & Pozzer, A 2024, 'Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 19, no. 2, 024041. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2162

APA

Akritidis, D., Bacer, S., Zanis, P., Georgoulias, A. K., Chowdhury, S., Horowitz, L. W., Naik, V., O’Connor, F. M., Keeble, J., Sager, P. L., van Noije, T., Zhou, P., Turnock, S., West, J. J., Lelieveld, J., & Pozzer, A. (2024). Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario. Environmental Research Letters, 19(2), Article 024041. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2162

Vancouver

Akritidis D, Bacer S, Zanis P, Georgoulias AK, Chowdhury S, Horowitz LW et al. Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario. Environmental Research Letters. 2024 Feb 9;19(2):024041. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2162

Author

Akritidis, Dimitris ; Bacer, Sara ; Zanis, Prodromos et al. / Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2024 ; Vol. 19, No. 2.

Bibtex

@article{e7dce817f2884376ad0578f3333fdb54,
title = "Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario",
abstract = "Long-term exposure to ambient ozone (O3) is associated with excess respiratory mortality. Pollution emissions, demographic, and climate changes are expected to drive future ozone-related mortality. Here, we assess global mortality attributable to ozone according to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario applied in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, projecting a temperature increase of about 3.6 °C by the end of the century. We estimated ozone-related mortality on a global scale up to 2090 following the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 approach, using bias-corrected simulations from three CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) under the SSP3-7.0 emissions scenario. Based on the three ESMs simulations, global ozone-related mortality by 2090 will amount to 2.79 M [95% CI 0.97 M-5.23 M] to 3.12 M [95% CI 1.11 M-5.75 M] per year, approximately ninefold that of the 327 K [95% CI 103 K-652 K] deaths per year in 2000. Climate change alone may lead to an increase of ozone-related mortality in 2090 between 42 K [95% CI −37 K-122 K] and 217 K [95% CI 68 K-367 K] per year. Population growth and ageing are associated with an increase in global ozone-related mortality by a factor of 5.34, while the increase by ozone trends alone ranges between factors of 1.48 and 1.7. Ambient ozone pollution under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario is projected to become a significant human health risk factor. Yet, optimizing living conditions and healthcare standards worldwide to the optimal ones today (application of minimum baseline mortality rates) will help mitigate the adverse consequences associated with population growth and ageing, and ozone increases caused by pollution emissions and climate change.",
keywords = "anthropogenic emissions, climate change, CMIP6, excess mortality, human health, ozone, population",
author = "Dimitris Akritidis and Sara Bacer and Prodromos Zanis and Georgoulias, {Aristeidis K.} and Sourangsu Chowdhury and Horowitz, {Larry W.} and Vaishali Naik and O{\textquoteright}Connor, {Fiona M.} and James Keeble and Sager, {Philippe Le} and {van Noije}, Twan and Putian Zhou and Steven Turnock and West, {J. Jason} and Jos Lelieveld and Andrea Pozzer",
year = "2024",
month = feb,
day = "9",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/ad2162",
language = "English",
volume = "19",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9326",
publisher = "IOP Publishing Ltd",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario

AU - Akritidis, Dimitris

AU - Bacer, Sara

AU - Zanis, Prodromos

AU - Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.

AU - Chowdhury, Sourangsu

AU - Horowitz, Larry W.

AU - Naik, Vaishali

AU - O’Connor, Fiona M.

AU - Keeble, James

AU - Sager, Philippe Le

AU - van Noije, Twan

AU - Zhou, Putian

AU - Turnock, Steven

AU - West, J. Jason

AU - Lelieveld, Jos

AU - Pozzer, Andrea

PY - 2024/2/9

Y1 - 2024/2/9

N2 - Long-term exposure to ambient ozone (O3) is associated with excess respiratory mortality. Pollution emissions, demographic, and climate changes are expected to drive future ozone-related mortality. Here, we assess global mortality attributable to ozone according to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario applied in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, projecting a temperature increase of about 3.6 °C by the end of the century. We estimated ozone-related mortality on a global scale up to 2090 following the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 approach, using bias-corrected simulations from three CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) under the SSP3-7.0 emissions scenario. Based on the three ESMs simulations, global ozone-related mortality by 2090 will amount to 2.79 M [95% CI 0.97 M-5.23 M] to 3.12 M [95% CI 1.11 M-5.75 M] per year, approximately ninefold that of the 327 K [95% CI 103 K-652 K] deaths per year in 2000. Climate change alone may lead to an increase of ozone-related mortality in 2090 between 42 K [95% CI −37 K-122 K] and 217 K [95% CI 68 K-367 K] per year. Population growth and ageing are associated with an increase in global ozone-related mortality by a factor of 5.34, while the increase by ozone trends alone ranges between factors of 1.48 and 1.7. Ambient ozone pollution under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario is projected to become a significant human health risk factor. Yet, optimizing living conditions and healthcare standards worldwide to the optimal ones today (application of minimum baseline mortality rates) will help mitigate the adverse consequences associated with population growth and ageing, and ozone increases caused by pollution emissions and climate change.

AB - Long-term exposure to ambient ozone (O3) is associated with excess respiratory mortality. Pollution emissions, demographic, and climate changes are expected to drive future ozone-related mortality. Here, we assess global mortality attributable to ozone according to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario applied in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, projecting a temperature increase of about 3.6 °C by the end of the century. We estimated ozone-related mortality on a global scale up to 2090 following the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 approach, using bias-corrected simulations from three CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) under the SSP3-7.0 emissions scenario. Based on the three ESMs simulations, global ozone-related mortality by 2090 will amount to 2.79 M [95% CI 0.97 M-5.23 M] to 3.12 M [95% CI 1.11 M-5.75 M] per year, approximately ninefold that of the 327 K [95% CI 103 K-652 K] deaths per year in 2000. Climate change alone may lead to an increase of ozone-related mortality in 2090 between 42 K [95% CI −37 K-122 K] and 217 K [95% CI 68 K-367 K] per year. Population growth and ageing are associated with an increase in global ozone-related mortality by a factor of 5.34, while the increase by ozone trends alone ranges between factors of 1.48 and 1.7. Ambient ozone pollution under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario is projected to become a significant human health risk factor. Yet, optimizing living conditions and healthcare standards worldwide to the optimal ones today (application of minimum baseline mortality rates) will help mitigate the adverse consequences associated with population growth and ageing, and ozone increases caused by pollution emissions and climate change.

KW - anthropogenic emissions

KW - climate change

KW - CMIP6

KW - excess mortality

KW - human health

KW - ozone

KW - population

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2162

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2162

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85185194424

VL - 19

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 2

M1 - 024041

ER -