TY - JOUR

T1 - Techniques for valuing adaptive capacity in flood risk management

AU - Brisley, Rachel

AU - Wylde, Richard

AU - Lamb, Rob

AU - Cooper, Jonathan

AU - Sayers, Paul

AU - Hall, Jim

PY - 2016/4

Y1 - 2016/4

N2 - Flood and coastal erosion risk management has always faced the challenge of decision making in the face of multiple uncertainties relating to the climate, the economy and society. Traditionally, this has been addressed by adopting a precautionary approach that seeks to protect against a reasonable worst case. However, a managed adaptive approach can offer advantages. The benefits include improved resilience to negative changes, enabling opportunities from positive changes and greater cost effectiveness. The absence of clear methods and tools to value adaptive approaches has been recognised as an obstacle to wider adoption. This paper proposes a staged approach to building in adaptive capacity, which systematically analyses uncertainties, identifies opportunities to incorporate adaptability and appraises benefits through the analysis of decision trees. A case study is presented. The methodology is set in the context of appraisal processes used in England by the Environment Agency, based on cost–benefit analysis guidance issued by HM Treasury. The approach is transferable to other situations worldwide, where decision making is based on quantified assessment of costs and benefits. The work should help decision makers fully appraise the benefits of building in adaptive capacity and make the economic and technical case for adaptive flood risk management in an uncertain environment.

AB - Flood and coastal erosion risk management has always faced the challenge of decision making in the face of multiple uncertainties relating to the climate, the economy and society. Traditionally, this has been addressed by adopting a precautionary approach that seeks to protect against a reasonable worst case. However, a managed adaptive approach can offer advantages. The benefits include improved resilience to negative changes, enabling opportunities from positive changes and greater cost effectiveness. The absence of clear methods and tools to value adaptive approaches has been recognised as an obstacle to wider adoption. This paper proposes a staged approach to building in adaptive capacity, which systematically analyses uncertainties, identifies opportunities to incorporate adaptability and appraises benefits through the analysis of decision trees. A case study is presented. The methodology is set in the context of appraisal processes used in England by the Environment Agency, based on cost–benefit analysis guidance issued by HM Treasury. The approach is transferable to other situations worldwide, where decision making is based on quantified assessment of costs and benefits. The work should help decision makers fully appraise the benefits of building in adaptive capacity and make the economic and technical case for adaptive flood risk management in an uncertain environment.

U2 - 10.1680/jwama.14.00070

DO - 10.1680/jwama.14.00070

M3 - Journal article

VL - 169

SP - 75

EP - 84

JO - Proceedings of the ICE - Water Management

JF - Proceedings of the ICE - Water Management

SN - 1741-7589

IS - 2

M1 - 1400070

ER -