The Development of Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Crop Failures in Ethiopia with the Prospect of Developing a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model

Economics

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CATrisk-poverty-Geneva-Resubmission28Feb
Rights statement: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41288-017-0051-6
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https://doi.org/10.1057/s41288-017-0051-6
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Keywords

catastrophe risk models, disaster risk financing, drought, Ethiopia, poverty, vulnerability

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The Development of Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Crop Failures in Ethiopia with the Prospect of Developing a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model. / Porter, C.; White, E.
In: Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice, Vol. 42, No. 4, 01.10.2017, p. 657-674.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Bibtex

@article{696499133dcd4912a6c21990298fcea7,

title = "The Development of Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Crop Failures in Ethiopia with the Prospect of Developing a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model",

abstract = "We analyse the potential to combine catastrophe (CAT) risk modelling with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realised shocks and household expenditure/consumption outcomes, onto a forward-looking view of drought risk. We outline the CAT risk modelling framework and the role of the vulnerability module. We present results of a regression model estimating ex post drought impacts on consumption for heterogeneous household types. We assess the generalisability of the derived functions to infer applicability to a CAT risk modelling framework. We stress test the model using statistical models of resampling to establish external validity: whether the relationships established in the data set can be used beyond the context in which they were derived. We conclude with caution that a full CAT risk model could be applied. {\textcopyright} 2017 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.",

keywords = "catastrophe risk models, disaster risk financing, drought, Ethiopia, poverty, vulnerability",

author = "C. Porter and E. White",

note = "The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41288-017-0051-6",

year = "2017",

month = oct,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1057/s41288-017-0051-6",

language = "English",

volume = "42",

pages = "657--674",

journal = "Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice",

number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Development of Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Crop Failures in Ethiopia with the Prospect of Developing a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model

AU - Porter, C.

AU - White, E.

N1 - The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41288-017-0051-6

PY - 2017/10/1

Y1 - 2017/10/1

N2 - We analyse the potential to combine catastrophe (CAT) risk modelling with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realised shocks and household expenditure/consumption outcomes, onto a forward-looking view of drought risk. We outline the CAT risk modelling framework and the role of the vulnerability module. We present results of a regression model estimating ex post drought impacts on consumption for heterogeneous household types. We assess the generalisability of the derived functions to infer applicability to a CAT risk modelling framework. We stress test the model using statistical models of resampling to establish external validity: whether the relationships established in the data set can be used beyond the context in which they were derived. We conclude with caution that a full CAT risk model could be applied. © 2017 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.

AB - We analyse the potential to combine catastrophe (CAT) risk modelling with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realised shocks and household expenditure/consumption outcomes, onto a forward-looking view of drought risk. We outline the CAT risk modelling framework and the role of the vulnerability module. We present results of a regression model estimating ex post drought impacts on consumption for heterogeneous household types. We assess the generalisability of the derived functions to infer applicability to a CAT risk modelling framework. We stress test the model using statistical models of resampling to establish external validity: whether the relationships established in the data set can be used beyond the context in which they were derived. We conclude with caution that a full CAT risk model could be applied. © 2017 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.

KW - catastrophe risk models

KW - disaster risk financing

KW - drought

KW - Ethiopia

KW - poverty

KW - vulnerability

U2 - 10.1057/s41288-017-0051-6

DO - 10.1057/s41288-017-0051-6

M3 - Journal article

VL - 42

SP - 657

EP - 674

JO - Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice

JF - Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice

IS - 4

ER -

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