Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The importance of co-convictions in the prediction of dangerous recidivism
T2 - blackmail and kidnapping as a demonstration study
AU - Soothill, Keith
AU - Francis, Brian
AU - Liu, Jiayi
PY - 2010/2
Y1 - 2010/2
N2 - Co-convictions are court convictions made at the same time as a more serious conviction. Their importance has been little recognized. We investigate their value using data on two separate serious crimes. Taking official conviction careers in England and Wales (1979-2001) for blackmail (n = 5774) and kidnapping offenders (n = 7291), we considered how much information on co-convictions is normally overlooked, and how knowledge of co-convictions contributes to predicting serious recidivism. We identified that co-convictions were pervasive, with 54 per cent of convictions for blackmail and 77 per cent for kidnapping having co-convictions. Co-convictions provided extra explanatory power in predicting the risk of a subsequent sexual or violent offence for both blackmail and kidnapping. For blackmail, most types of co-conviction were associated with a significantly raised relative risk, whereas for kidnapping, only co-convictions which were not acquisitive, sexual or violent had a significantly raised relative risk. We concluded that co-convictions are a useful measure of short-term specialization and are important when predicting serious recidivism.
AB - Co-convictions are court convictions made at the same time as a more serious conviction. Their importance has been little recognized. We investigate their value using data on two separate serious crimes. Taking official conviction careers in England and Wales (1979-2001) for blackmail (n = 5774) and kidnapping offenders (n = 7291), we considered how much information on co-convictions is normally overlooked, and how knowledge of co-convictions contributes to predicting serious recidivism. We identified that co-convictions were pervasive, with 54 per cent of convictions for blackmail and 77 per cent for kidnapping having co-convictions. Co-convictions provided extra explanatory power in predicting the risk of a subsequent sexual or violent offence for both blackmail and kidnapping. For blackmail, most types of co-conviction were associated with a significantly raised relative risk, whereas for kidnapping, only co-convictions which were not acquisitive, sexual or violent had a significantly raised relative risk. We concluded that co-convictions are a useful measure of short-term specialization and are important when predicting serious recidivism.
KW - co-convictions
KW - prediction
KW - secondary convictions
KW - sexual recidivism
KW - specialization
KW - violent recidivism
KW - SPECIALIZATION
KW - OFFENDER
U2 - 10.1177/1748895809352650
DO - 10.1177/1748895809352650
M3 - Journal article
VL - 10
SP - 23
EP - 36
JO - Criminology and Criminal Justice
JF - Criminology and Criminal Justice
SN - 1748-8958
IS - 1
ER -