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The importance of co-convictions in the prediction of dangerous recidivism: blackmail and kidnapping as a demonstration study

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The importance of co-convictions in the prediction of dangerous recidivism : blackmail and kidnapping as a demonstration study. / Soothill, Keith; Francis, Brian; Liu, Jiayi.

In: Criminology and Criminal Justice, Vol. 10, No. 1, 02.2010, p. 23-36.

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@article{0b220f7500834b13a406eb985a127b28,
title = "The importance of co-convictions in the prediction of dangerous recidivism: blackmail and kidnapping as a demonstration study",
abstract = "Co-convictions are court convictions made at the same time as a more serious conviction. Their importance has been little recognized. We investigate their value using data on two separate serious crimes. Taking official conviction careers in England and Wales (1979-2001) for blackmail (n = 5774) and kidnapping offenders (n = 7291), we considered how much information on co-convictions is normally overlooked, and how knowledge of co-convictions contributes to predicting serious recidivism. We identified that co-convictions were pervasive, with 54 per cent of convictions for blackmail and 77 per cent for kidnapping having co-convictions. Co-convictions provided extra explanatory power in predicting the risk of a subsequent sexual or violent offence for both blackmail and kidnapping. For blackmail, most types of co-conviction were associated with a significantly raised relative risk, whereas for kidnapping, only co-convictions which were not acquisitive, sexual or violent had a significantly raised relative risk. We concluded that co-convictions are a useful measure of short-term specialization and are important when predicting serious recidivism.",
keywords = "co-convictions, prediction, secondary convictions, sexual recidivism, specialization, violent recidivism, SPECIALIZATION, OFFENDER",
author = "Keith Soothill and Brian Francis and Jiayi Liu",
year = "2010",
month = feb,
doi = "10.1177/1748895809352650",
language = "English",
volume = "10",
pages = "23--36",
journal = "Criminology and Criminal Justice",
issn = "1748-8958",
publisher = "SAGE Publications Ltd",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The importance of co-convictions in the prediction of dangerous recidivism

T2 - blackmail and kidnapping as a demonstration study

AU - Soothill, Keith

AU - Francis, Brian

AU - Liu, Jiayi

PY - 2010/2

Y1 - 2010/2

N2 - Co-convictions are court convictions made at the same time as a more serious conviction. Their importance has been little recognized. We investigate their value using data on two separate serious crimes. Taking official conviction careers in England and Wales (1979-2001) for blackmail (n = 5774) and kidnapping offenders (n = 7291), we considered how much information on co-convictions is normally overlooked, and how knowledge of co-convictions contributes to predicting serious recidivism. We identified that co-convictions were pervasive, with 54 per cent of convictions for blackmail and 77 per cent for kidnapping having co-convictions. Co-convictions provided extra explanatory power in predicting the risk of a subsequent sexual or violent offence for both blackmail and kidnapping. For blackmail, most types of co-conviction were associated with a significantly raised relative risk, whereas for kidnapping, only co-convictions which were not acquisitive, sexual or violent had a significantly raised relative risk. We concluded that co-convictions are a useful measure of short-term specialization and are important when predicting serious recidivism.

AB - Co-convictions are court convictions made at the same time as a more serious conviction. Their importance has been little recognized. We investigate their value using data on two separate serious crimes. Taking official conviction careers in England and Wales (1979-2001) for blackmail (n = 5774) and kidnapping offenders (n = 7291), we considered how much information on co-convictions is normally overlooked, and how knowledge of co-convictions contributes to predicting serious recidivism. We identified that co-convictions were pervasive, with 54 per cent of convictions for blackmail and 77 per cent for kidnapping having co-convictions. Co-convictions provided extra explanatory power in predicting the risk of a subsequent sexual or violent offence for both blackmail and kidnapping. For blackmail, most types of co-conviction were associated with a significantly raised relative risk, whereas for kidnapping, only co-convictions which were not acquisitive, sexual or violent had a significantly raised relative risk. We concluded that co-convictions are a useful measure of short-term specialization and are important when predicting serious recidivism.

KW - co-convictions

KW - prediction

KW - secondary convictions

KW - sexual recidivism

KW - specialization

KW - violent recidivism

KW - SPECIALIZATION

KW - OFFENDER

U2 - 10.1177/1748895809352650

DO - 10.1177/1748895809352650

M3 - Journal article

VL - 10

SP - 23

EP - 36

JO - Criminology and Criminal Justice

JF - Criminology and Criminal Justice

SN - 1748-8958

IS - 1

ER -