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The time to extinction for an SIS-household-epidemic model

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The time to extinction for an SIS-household-epidemic model. / Britton, Tom; Neal, Peter.
In: Journal of Mathematical Biology, Vol. 61, No. 6, 12.2010, p. 763-779.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Britton, T & Neal, P 2010, 'The time to extinction for an SIS-household-epidemic model', Journal of Mathematical Biology, vol. 61, no. 6, pp. 763-779. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-009-0320-5

APA

Britton, T., & Neal, P. (2010). The time to extinction for an SIS-household-epidemic model. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 61(6), 763-779. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-009-0320-5

Vancouver

Britton T, Neal P. The time to extinction for an SIS-household-epidemic model. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 2010 Dec;61(6):763-779. doi: 10.1007/s00285-009-0320-5

Author

Britton, Tom ; Neal, Peter. / The time to extinction for an SIS-household-epidemic model. In: Journal of Mathematical Biology. 2010 ; Vol. 61, No. 6. pp. 763-779.

Bibtex

@article{d7a6f5227e684f8ca53fa7d9ee5f9272,
title = "The time to extinction for an SIS-household-epidemic model",
abstract = "We analyse a Markovian SIS epidemic amongst a finite population partitioned into households. Since the population is finite, the epidemic will eventually go extinct, i.e., have no more infectives in the population. We study the effects of population size and within household transmission upon the time to extinction. This is done through two approximations. The first approximation is suitable for all levels of within household transmission and is based upon an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process approximation for the diseases fluctuations about an endemic level relying on a large population. The second approximation is suitable for high levels of within household transmission and approximates the number of infectious households by a simple homogeneously mixing SIS model with the households replaced by individuals. The analysis, supported by a simulation study, shows that the mean time to extinction is minimized by moderate levels of within household transmission.",
keywords = "SIS epidemics, Contact process , Households model , Time to extinction , Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process",
author = "Tom Britton and Peter Neal",
year = "2010",
month = dec,
doi = "10.1007/s00285-009-0320-5",
language = "English",
volume = "61",
pages = "763--779",
journal = "Journal of Mathematical Biology",
issn = "1432-1416",
publisher = "Springer Verlag",
number = "6",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The time to extinction for an SIS-household-epidemic model

AU - Britton, Tom

AU - Neal, Peter

PY - 2010/12

Y1 - 2010/12

N2 - We analyse a Markovian SIS epidemic amongst a finite population partitioned into households. Since the population is finite, the epidemic will eventually go extinct, i.e., have no more infectives in the population. We study the effects of population size and within household transmission upon the time to extinction. This is done through two approximations. The first approximation is suitable for all levels of within household transmission and is based upon an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process approximation for the diseases fluctuations about an endemic level relying on a large population. The second approximation is suitable for high levels of within household transmission and approximates the number of infectious households by a simple homogeneously mixing SIS model with the households replaced by individuals. The analysis, supported by a simulation study, shows that the mean time to extinction is minimized by moderate levels of within household transmission.

AB - We analyse a Markovian SIS epidemic amongst a finite population partitioned into households. Since the population is finite, the epidemic will eventually go extinct, i.e., have no more infectives in the population. We study the effects of population size and within household transmission upon the time to extinction. This is done through two approximations. The first approximation is suitable for all levels of within household transmission and is based upon an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process approximation for the diseases fluctuations about an endemic level relying on a large population. The second approximation is suitable for high levels of within household transmission and approximates the number of infectious households by a simple homogeneously mixing SIS model with the households replaced by individuals. The analysis, supported by a simulation study, shows that the mean time to extinction is minimized by moderate levels of within household transmission.

KW - SIS epidemics

KW - Contact process

KW - Households model

KW - Time to extinction

KW - Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

U2 - 10.1007/s00285-009-0320-5

DO - 10.1007/s00285-009-0320-5

M3 - Journal article

VL - 61

SP - 763

EP - 779

JO - Journal of Mathematical Biology

JF - Journal of Mathematical Biology

SN - 1432-1416

IS - 6

ER -