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The use of multiple systems estimation to estimate the number of unattributed paintings by Modigliani

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

E-pub ahead of print
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>14/01/2025
<mark>Journal</mark>Statistical Methods and Applications
Publication StatusE-pub ahead of print
Early online date14/01/25
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

The number of unattributed paintings by Amedeo Modigliani is estimated, using
the method of multiple systems estimation (MSE). Most major artists’ works are
listed in one catalogue raisonee, but there are five catalogues purporting to list
Modigliani paintings. These can be treated as list sources from which MSE can
be applied. We obtain estimates following the classical MSE approach using loglinear models (Cormack, 1989; Fienberg, 1972), comparing these with estimates
obtained via a Bayesian non-parametric latent class approach (Manrique-Vallier,
2016). We also consider the impact of fake paintings through sensitivity analyses. Our estimates point to there being around 20–120 unattributed Modigliani
paintings.

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