TY - GEN

T1 - Towards adaptive control of landscape biodiversity

AU - Polhill, J. Gary

AU - Jarvis, Andrew

AU - Gimona, Alessandro

AU - Gotts, Nicholas M.

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - This paper reports work using a coupled agent-based model of land use change and species metacommunity model (FEARLUS-SPOMM) to explore biodiversity incentive mechanisms using adaptive control algorithms. Existing work at the Lancaster Environment Centre has shown that such algorithms can help in analysing the adaptive capabilities of climate-related policy interventions under uncertainty. In particular, feedback control is a practical approach that mimics many recognisable features of adaptive decision making processes, including the sequential review of models and policies in the light of new observations. In a companion paper, we show that FEARLUS-SPOMM shows nonlinear dynamics in the relationship between agricultural incentives and biodiversity outcome. In this pilot study, we show that the sequential review implicit in feedback control allows information about unforeseen events to be assimilated such that biodiversity can be maintained at a desired level by adaptively adjusting agricultural incentives. We also find that Simon's 'satisficing' has its limitations in the representation of human decision making.

AB - This paper reports work using a coupled agent-based model of land use change and species metacommunity model (FEARLUS-SPOMM) to explore biodiversity incentive mechanisms using adaptive control algorithms. Existing work at the Lancaster Environment Centre has shown that such algorithms can help in analysing the adaptive capabilities of climate-related policy interventions under uncertainty. In particular, feedback control is a practical approach that mimics many recognisable features of adaptive decision making processes, including the sequential review of models and policies in the light of new observations. In a companion paper, we show that FEARLUS-SPOMM shows nonlinear dynamics in the relationship between agricultural incentives and biodiversity outcome. In this pilot study, we show that the sequential review implicit in feedback control allows information about unforeseen events to be assimilated such that biodiversity can be maintained at a desired level by adaptively adjusting agricultural incentives. We also find that Simon's 'satisficing' has its limitations in the representation of human decision making.

KW - Agent-based models of land use/cover change

KW - Agri-environmental incentives

KW - Biodiversity

KW - Metacommunity models

KW - Model predictive control

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84858660272&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Conference contribution/Paper

AN - SCOPUS:84858660272

SN - 9788890357411

T3 - Modelling for Environment's Sake: Proceedings of the 5th Biennial Conference of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, iEMSs 2010

SP - 757

EP - 765

BT - Modelling for Environment's Sake

T2 - 5th Biennial Conference of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society: Modelling for Environment's Sake, iEMSs 2010

Y2 - 5 July 2010 through 8 July 2010

ER -