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Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges

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Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges. / Butler, Adam; Heffernan, Janet E.; Tawn, Jonathan A. et al.
In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, Vol. 56, No. 4, 31.08.2007, p. 395-414.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Butler, A, Heffernan, JE, Tawn, JA & Flather, RA 2007, 'Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 395-414. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2007.00583.x

APA

Butler, A., Heffernan, J. E., Tawn, J. A., & Flather, R. A. (2007). Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 56(4), 395-414. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2007.00583.x

Vancouver

Butler A, Heffernan JE, Tawn JA, Flather RA. Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics. 2007 Aug 31;56(4):395-414. Epub 2007 Aug 20. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2007.00583.x

Author

Butler, Adam ; Heffernan, Janet E. ; Tawn, Jonathan A. et al. / Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges. In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics. 2007 ; Vol. 56, No. 4. pp. 395-414.

Bibtex

@article{3a1e3eb1a6504b07a7290df125416262,
title = "Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges",
abstract = "Mechanistic models for complex atmospheric and hydrological processes are often used to simulate extreme natural events, usually to quantify the risks that are associated with these events. We use novel extreme value methods to analyse the statistical properties of output from a numerical storm surge model for the North Sea. The 'model data' constitute a reconstruction of the storm surge climate for the period 1955-2000 based on a high quality meteorological data set and constitute the only available source of information on surge elevations at offshore and unmonitored coastal locations over this period. Previous studies have used extreme value methods to analyse storm surge characteristics, but we can extend and improve on these analyses by using a local likelihood approach to provide a non-parametric description of temporal and spatial variations in the magnitude and frequency of storm surge events.",
keywords = "Coastal flood risk, Extreme sea levels, Extreme value theory, Generalized extreme value model, Local likelihood, Return level, Statistical oceanography, Storminess, Surge",
author = "Adam Butler and Heffernan, {Janet E.} and Tawn, {Jonathan A.} and Flather, {Roger A.}",
year = "2007",
month = aug,
day = "31",
doi = "10.1111/j.1467-9876.2007.00583.x",
language = "English",
volume = "56",
pages = "395--414",
journal = "Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics",
issn = "0035-9254",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges

AU - Butler, Adam

AU - Heffernan, Janet E.

AU - Tawn, Jonathan A.

AU - Flather, Roger A.

PY - 2007/8/31

Y1 - 2007/8/31

N2 - Mechanistic models for complex atmospheric and hydrological processes are often used to simulate extreme natural events, usually to quantify the risks that are associated with these events. We use novel extreme value methods to analyse the statistical properties of output from a numerical storm surge model for the North Sea. The 'model data' constitute a reconstruction of the storm surge climate for the period 1955-2000 based on a high quality meteorological data set and constitute the only available source of information on surge elevations at offshore and unmonitored coastal locations over this period. Previous studies have used extreme value methods to analyse storm surge characteristics, but we can extend and improve on these analyses by using a local likelihood approach to provide a non-parametric description of temporal and spatial variations in the magnitude and frequency of storm surge events.

AB - Mechanistic models for complex atmospheric and hydrological processes are often used to simulate extreme natural events, usually to quantify the risks that are associated with these events. We use novel extreme value methods to analyse the statistical properties of output from a numerical storm surge model for the North Sea. The 'model data' constitute a reconstruction of the storm surge climate for the period 1955-2000 based on a high quality meteorological data set and constitute the only available source of information on surge elevations at offshore and unmonitored coastal locations over this period. Previous studies have used extreme value methods to analyse storm surge characteristics, but we can extend and improve on these analyses by using a local likelihood approach to provide a non-parametric description of temporal and spatial variations in the magnitude and frequency of storm surge events.

KW - Coastal flood risk

KW - Extreme sea levels

KW - Extreme value theory

KW - Generalized extreme value model

KW - Local likelihood

KW - Return level

KW - Statistical oceanography

KW - Storminess

KW - Surge

U2 - 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2007.00583.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2007.00583.x

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:34548130044

VL - 56

SP - 395

EP - 414

JO - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics

JF - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics

SN - 0035-9254

IS - 4

ER -