Standard
Harvard
Smith, PJ & Beven, KJ 2014,
When to issue a flood warning: towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts. in M Beer, S-K Au & JW Hall (eds),
Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), pp. 1395-1404.
https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.140
APA
Smith, P. J., & Beven, K. J. (2014).
When to issue a flood warning: towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts. In M. Beer, S-K. Au, & J. W. Hall (Eds.),
Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 (pp. 1395-1404). American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).
https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.140
Vancouver
Smith PJ, Beven KJ.
When to issue a flood warning: towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts. In Beer M, Au S-K, Hall JW, editors, Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). 2014. p. 1395-1404 doi: 10.1061/9780784413609.140
Author
Bibtex
@inproceedings{733ad4ab84b340409ca7030247e76a9d,
title = "When to issue a flood warning: towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts",
abstract = "In operational flood forecasting, the decision to issue a warning to the community at risk has to be made in real time based on evolving probabilistic forecasts of the hazard. However, not only is the hazard forecast changing in time, but so too are the exposure and vulnerability. This may be the result of changes in the location of assets and people, or - more qualitatively - in a loss or gain for the reputation of the forecasting authority. In this work, we take the first steps towards quantifying these to form a risk-based framework for making the decision to issue a warning using an example catchment in the UK.",
author = "Smith, {Paul James} and Beven, {Keith John}",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1061/9780784413609.140",
language = "English",
isbn = "9780784413609",
pages = "1395--1404",
editor = "Michael Beer and Siu-Kui Au and Hall, {Jim W.}",
booktitle = "Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk",
publisher = "American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)",
address = "United States",
}
RIS
TY - GEN
T1 - When to issue a flood warning
T2 - towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts
AU - Smith, Paul James
AU - Beven, Keith John
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - In operational flood forecasting, the decision to issue a warning to the community at risk has to be made in real time based on evolving probabilistic forecasts of the hazard. However, not only is the hazard forecast changing in time, but so too are the exposure and vulnerability. This may be the result of changes in the location of assets and people, or - more qualitatively - in a loss or gain for the reputation of the forecasting authority. In this work, we take the first steps towards quantifying these to form a risk-based framework for making the decision to issue a warning using an example catchment in the UK.
AB - In operational flood forecasting, the decision to issue a warning to the community at risk has to be made in real time based on evolving probabilistic forecasts of the hazard. However, not only is the hazard forecast changing in time, but so too are the exposure and vulnerability. This may be the result of changes in the location of assets and people, or - more qualitatively - in a loss or gain for the reputation of the forecasting authority. In this work, we take the first steps towards quantifying these to form a risk-based framework for making the decision to issue a warning using an example catchment in the UK.
U2 - 10.1061/9780784413609.140
DO - 10.1061/9780784413609.140
M3 - Conference contribution/Paper
SN - 9780784413609
SP - 1395
EP - 1404
BT - Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk
A2 - Beer, Michael
A2 - Au, Siu-Kui
A2 - Hall, Jim W.
PB - American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
ER -