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When to issue a flood warning: towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts

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When to issue a flood warning : towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts. / Smith, Paul James; Beven, Keith John.

Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. ed. / Michael Beer; Siu-Kui Au; Jim W. Hall. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2014. p. 1395-1404.

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

Harvard

Smith, PJ & Beven, KJ 2014, When to issue a flood warning: towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts. in M Beer, S-K Au & JW Hall (eds), Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), pp. 1395-1404. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.140

APA

Smith, P. J., & Beven, K. J. (2014). When to issue a flood warning: towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts. In M. Beer, S-K. Au, & J. W. Hall (Eds.), Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 (pp. 1395-1404). American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.140

Vancouver

Smith PJ, Beven KJ. When to issue a flood warning: towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts. In Beer M, Au S-K, Hall JW, editors, Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). 2014. p. 1395-1404 doi: 10.1061/9780784413609.140

Author

Smith, Paul James ; Beven, Keith John. / When to issue a flood warning : towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. editor / Michael Beer ; Siu-Kui Au ; Jim W. Hall. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2014. pp. 1395-1404

Bibtex

@inproceedings{733ad4ab84b340409ca7030247e76a9d,
title = "When to issue a flood warning: towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts",
abstract = "In operational flood forecasting, the decision to issue a warning to the community at risk has to be made in real time based on evolving probabilistic forecasts of the hazard. However, not only is the hazard forecast changing in time, but so too are the exposure and vulnerability. This may be the result of changes in the location of assets and people, or - more qualitatively - in a loss or gain for the reputation of the forecasting authority. In this work, we take the first steps towards quantifying these to form a risk-based framework for making the decision to issue a warning using an example catchment in the UK.",
author = "Smith, {Paul James} and Beven, {Keith John}",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1061/9780784413609.140",
language = "English",
isbn = "9780784413609",
pages = "1395--1404",
editor = "Michael Beer and Siu-Kui Au and Hall, {Jim W.}",
booktitle = "Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk",
publisher = "American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)",
address = "United States",

}

RIS

TY - GEN

T1 - When to issue a flood warning

T2 - towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts

AU - Smith, Paul James

AU - Beven, Keith John

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - In operational flood forecasting, the decision to issue a warning to the community at risk has to be made in real time based on evolving probabilistic forecasts of the hazard. However, not only is the hazard forecast changing in time, but so too are the exposure and vulnerability. This may be the result of changes in the location of assets and people, or - more qualitatively - in a loss or gain for the reputation of the forecasting authority. In this work, we take the first steps towards quantifying these to form a risk-based framework for making the decision to issue a warning using an example catchment in the UK.

AB - In operational flood forecasting, the decision to issue a warning to the community at risk has to be made in real time based on evolving probabilistic forecasts of the hazard. However, not only is the hazard forecast changing in time, but so too are the exposure and vulnerability. This may be the result of changes in the location of assets and people, or - more qualitatively - in a loss or gain for the reputation of the forecasting authority. In this work, we take the first steps towards quantifying these to form a risk-based framework for making the decision to issue a warning using an example catchment in the UK.

U2 - 10.1061/9780784413609.140

DO - 10.1061/9780784413609.140

M3 - Conference contribution/Paper

SN - 9780784413609

SP - 1395

EP - 1404

BT - Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk

A2 - Beer, Michael

A2 - Au, Siu-Kui

A2 - Hall, Jim W.

PB - American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)

ER -