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Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football matches

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published

Journal publication date2015
JournalJournal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)
Number of pages30
Pages1-30
Early online date15/07/14
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

A multivariate counting process formulation is developed for the quantification of association football event interdependencies which permits dynamic prediction as events unfold. We model data from English Premier League and Championship games from the 2009-10 and 2010-11 football seasons and assess predictive capacity using a model-based betting strategy, applied prospectively to available live spread betting prices. Both the scoreline and bookings status were predictive of match outcome. In particular, a red card led to increased goal rates for the non-penalised team and the home team scoring rate decreased once they were ahead. Overall the betting strategy profited with gains made in the bookings markets.