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Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football matches

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football matches. / Titman, Andrew; Costain, Deborah; Ridall, Gareth et al.
In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society, Vol. 178, No. 3, 06.2015, p. 659-683.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Titman, A, Costain, D, Ridall, G & Gregory, K 2015, 'Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football matches', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society, vol. 178, no. 3, pp. 659-683. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12075

APA

Titman, A., Costain, D., Ridall, G., & Gregory, K. (2015). Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football matches. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society, 178(3), 659-683. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12075

Vancouver

Titman A, Costain D, Ridall G, Gregory K. Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football matches. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society. 2015 Jun;178(3):659-683. Epub 2014 Jul 15. doi: 10.1111/rssa.12075

Author

Titman, Andrew ; Costain, Deborah ; Ridall, Gareth et al. / Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football matches. In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society. 2015 ; Vol. 178, No. 3. pp. 659-683.

Bibtex

@article{751a5aa0bcd0458b8598b7a38deb515d,
title = "Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football matches",
abstract = "A multivariate counting process formulation is developed for the quantification of association football event interdependencies which permits dynamic prediction as events unfold. We model data from English Premier League and Championship games from the 2009-10 and 2010-11 football seasons and assess predictive capacity using a model-based betting strategy, applied prospectively to available live spread betting prices. Both the scoreline and bookings status were predictive of match outcome. In particular, a red card led to increased goal rates for the non-penalised team and the home team scoring rate decreased once they were ahead. Overall the betting strategy profited with gains made in the bookings markets.",
keywords = "Association football, Counting process , Dynamic prediction , Weibull distribution",
author = "Andrew Titman and Deborah Costain and Gareth Ridall and Kris Gregory",
year = "2015",
month = jun,
doi = "10.1111/rssa.12075",
language = "English",
volume = "178",
pages = "659--683",
journal = "Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society",
issn = "0964-1998",
publisher = "Wiley",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football matches

AU - Titman, Andrew

AU - Costain, Deborah

AU - Ridall, Gareth

AU - Gregory, Kris

PY - 2015/6

Y1 - 2015/6

N2 - A multivariate counting process formulation is developed for the quantification of association football event interdependencies which permits dynamic prediction as events unfold. We model data from English Premier League and Championship games from the 2009-10 and 2010-11 football seasons and assess predictive capacity using a model-based betting strategy, applied prospectively to available live spread betting prices. Both the scoreline and bookings status were predictive of match outcome. In particular, a red card led to increased goal rates for the non-penalised team and the home team scoring rate decreased once they were ahead. Overall the betting strategy profited with gains made in the bookings markets.

AB - A multivariate counting process formulation is developed for the quantification of association football event interdependencies which permits dynamic prediction as events unfold. We model data from English Premier League and Championship games from the 2009-10 and 2010-11 football seasons and assess predictive capacity using a model-based betting strategy, applied prospectively to available live spread betting prices. Both the scoreline and bookings status were predictive of match outcome. In particular, a red card led to increased goal rates for the non-penalised team and the home team scoring rate decreased once they were ahead. Overall the betting strategy profited with gains made in the bookings markets.

KW - Association football

KW - Counting process

KW - Dynamic prediction

KW - Weibull distribution

U2 - 10.1111/rssa.12075

DO - 10.1111/rssa.12075

M3 - Journal article

VL - 178

SP - 659

EP - 683

JO - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society

JF - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society

SN - 0964-1998

IS - 3

ER -