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Joint modelling of goals and bookings in association football matches

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

<mark>Journal publication date</mark>06/2015
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society
Issue number3
Number of pages25
Pages (from-to)659-683
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date15/07/14
<mark>Original language</mark>English


A multivariate counting process formulation is developed for the quantification of association football event interdependencies which permits dynamic prediction as events unfold. We model data from English Premier League and Championship games from the 2009-10 and 2010-11 football seasons and assess predictive capacity using a model-based betting strategy, applied prospectively to available live spread betting prices. Both the scoreline and bookings status were predictive of match outcome. In particular, a red card led to increased goal rates for the non-penalised team and the home team scoring rate decreased once they were ahead. Overall the betting strategy profited with gains made in the bookings markets.