Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest, Borneo Island
AU - Chappell, Nick A.
AU - Discenza, A. R.
AU - Tych, Wlodek
AU - Whittaker, J.
AU - Bidin, K.
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - The ability to simulate characteristics of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence, and its evolution over the seasons is important to the forecasting of hydrological impacts resulting from land-use and climate changes within the humid tropics. This stochastic modelling study uses a generalized linear model (GLM) solution to second-order Markov chain models, as these discrete models are better at describing binary occurrence processes on an hourly time-scale than continuous-time approaches such as stochastic state-space models. We show that transition probabilities derived by the Markov chain method need to be time-varying rather than stationary to simulate the evolution of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence over a Southeast Asian monsoon sequence. The conceptual and pragmatic links between discrete diurnal processes and continuous processes occurring over seasonal periods are thereby simulated within the same model.
AB - The ability to simulate characteristics of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence, and its evolution over the seasons is important to the forecasting of hydrological impacts resulting from land-use and climate changes within the humid tropics. This stochastic modelling study uses a generalized linear model (GLM) solution to second-order Markov chain models, as these discrete models are better at describing binary occurrence processes on an hourly time-scale than continuous-time approaches such as stochastic state-space models. We show that transition probabilities derived by the Markov chain method need to be time-varying rather than stationary to simulate the evolution of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence over a Southeast Asian monsoon sequence. The conceptual and pragmatic links between discrete diurnal processes and continuous processes occurring over seasonal periods are thereby simulated within the same model.
KW - generalized linear model (GLM)
KW - hourly rainfall
KW - Markov chain
KW - Monte Carlo simulation
KW - time-varying transition probabilities
KW - tropical climate
KW - weather generator
U2 - 10.1623/hysj.54.3.571
DO - 10.1623/hysj.54.3.571
M3 - Journal article
VL - 54
SP - 571
EP - 581
JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal
JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal
SN - 0262-6667
IS - 3
ER -