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Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest, Borneo Island

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

<mark>Journal publication date</mark>2009
<mark>Journal</mark>Hydrological Sciences Journal
Issue number3
Number of pages11
Pages (from-to)571-581
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English


The ability to simulate characteristics of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence, and its evolution over the seasons is important to the forecasting of hydrological impacts resulting from land-use and climate changes within the humid tropics. This stochastic modelling study uses a generalized linear model (GLM) solution to second-order Markov chain models, as these discrete models are better at describing binary occurrence processes on an hourly time-scale than continuous-time approaches such as stochastic state-space models. We show that transition probabilities derived by the Markov chain method need to be time-varying rather than stationary to simulate the evolution of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence over a Southeast Asian monsoon sequence. The conceptual and pragmatic links between discrete diurnal processes and continuous processes occurring over seasonal periods are thereby simulated within the same model.