Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest, Borneo Island

Lancaster Environment Centre

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Published

Standard

Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest, Borneo Island. / Chappell, Nick A.; Discenza, A. R.; Tych, Wlodek et al.
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 54, No. 3, 2009, p. 571-581.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Chappell, NA, Discenza, AR, Tych, W, Whittaker, J & Bidin, K 2009, 'Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest, Borneo Island', Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 571-581. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.3.571

APA

Chappell, N. A., Discenza, A. R., Tych, W., Whittaker, J., & Bidin, K. (2009). Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest, Borneo Island. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(3), 571-581. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.3.571

Vancouver

Chappell NA, Discenza AR, Tych W, Whittaker J, Bidin K. Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest, Borneo Island. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2009;54(3):571-581. doi: 10.1623/hysj.54.3.571

Author

Chappell, Nick A. ; Discenza, A. R. ; Tych, Wlodek et al. / Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest, Borneo Island. In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2009 ; Vol. 54, No. 3. pp. 571-581.

Bibtex

@article{8cea02f0ff034b7793bef0d01ba64b73,

title = "Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest, Borneo Island",

abstract = "The ability to simulate characteristics of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence, and its evolution over the seasons is important to the forecasting of hydrological impacts resulting from land-use and climate changes within the humid tropics. This stochastic modelling study uses a generalized linear model (GLM) solution to second-order Markov chain models, as these discrete models are better at describing binary occurrence processes on an hourly time-scale than continuous-time approaches such as stochastic state-space models. We show that transition probabilities derived by the Markov chain method need to be time-varying rather than stationary to simulate the evolution of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence over a Southeast Asian monsoon sequence. The conceptual and pragmatic links between discrete diurnal processes and continuous processes occurring over seasonal periods are thereby simulated within the same model.",

keywords = "generalized linear model (GLM), hourly rainfall, Markov chain, Monte Carlo simulation, time-varying transition probabilities, tropical climate, weather generator",

author = "Chappell, {Nick A.} and Discenza, {A. R.} and Wlodek Tych and J. Whittaker and K. Bidin",

year = "2009",

doi = "10.1623/hysj.54.3.571",

language = "English",

volume = "54",

pages = "571--581",

journal = "Hydrological Sciences Journal",

issn = "0262-6667",

publisher = "TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD",

number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest, Borneo Island

AU - Chappell, Nick A.

AU - Discenza, A. R.

AU - Tych, Wlodek

AU - Whittaker, J.

AU - Bidin, K.

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - The ability to simulate characteristics of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence, and its evolution over the seasons is important to the forecasting of hydrological impacts resulting from land-use and climate changes within the humid tropics. This stochastic modelling study uses a generalized linear model (GLM) solution to second-order Markov chain models, as these discrete models are better at describing binary occurrence processes on an hourly time-scale than continuous-time approaches such as stochastic state-space models. We show that transition probabilities derived by the Markov chain method need to be time-varying rather than stationary to simulate the evolution of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence over a Southeast Asian monsoon sequence. The conceptual and pragmatic links between discrete diurnal processes and continuous processes occurring over seasonal periods are thereby simulated within the same model.

AB - The ability to simulate characteristics of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence, and its evolution over the seasons is important to the forecasting of hydrological impacts resulting from land-use and climate changes within the humid tropics. This stochastic modelling study uses a generalized linear model (GLM) solution to second-order Markov chain models, as these discrete models are better at describing binary occurrence processes on an hourly time-scale than continuous-time approaches such as stochastic state-space models. We show that transition probabilities derived by the Markov chain method need to be time-varying rather than stationary to simulate the evolution of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence over a Southeast Asian monsoon sequence. The conceptual and pragmatic links between discrete diurnal processes and continuous processes occurring over seasonal periods are thereby simulated within the same model.

KW - generalized linear model (GLM)

KW - hourly rainfall

KW - Markov chain

KW - Monte Carlo simulation

KW - time-varying transition probabilities

KW - tropical climate

KW - weather generator

U2 - 10.1623/hysj.54.3.571

DO - 10.1623/hysj.54.3.571

M3 - Journal article

VL - 54

SP - 571

EP - 581

JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal

JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal

SN - 0262-6667

IS - 3

ER -

Research

Associated organisational unit

Links

Text available via DOI:

Keywords