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  • 2403.03388v1

    Accepted author manuscript, 890 KB, PDF document

    Available under license: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

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A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet

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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>19/09/2024
<mark>Journal</mark>Communications Earth & Environment
Publication StatusAccepted/In press
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 are scrutinized within. Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected. As such, we estimate minimum changes in the warming trend for a surge to be detectable in the near future.