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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet
AU - Beaulieu, Claudie
AU - Gallagher, Colin
AU - Killick, Rebecca
AU - Lund, Robert
AU - Shi, Xueheng
PY - 2024/9/19
Y1 - 2024/9/19
N2 - The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 are scrutinized within. Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected. As such, we estimate minimum changes in the warming trend for a surge to be detectable in the near future.
AB - The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 are scrutinized within. Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected. As such, we estimate minimum changes in the warming trend for a surge to be detectable in the near future.
KW - stat.AP
M3 - Journal article
JO - Communications Earth & Environment
JF - Communications Earth & Environment
SN - 2662-4435
ER -