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An extreme value analysis for the investigation into the sinking of the M. V. Derbyshire.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
  • Janet E. Heffernan
  • Jonathan A. Tawn
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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>07/2003
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)
Issue number3
Volume52
Number of pages18
Pages (from-to)337-354
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

The paper describes our involvement in the high court reopened formal investigation into the sinking of the bulk carrier M. V. Derbyshire. The statistical problem that we addressed concerned the estimation of the probability that the ship had sunk from a particular form of structural failure, resulting from large wave impacts on the ship, for each of a range of possible sea-state and vessel conditions. We considered several statistical models for the wave impacts on the ship with the generalized Pareto distribution, motivated by extreme value theory, providing an excellent description and aiding the investigation to draw clear conclusions about the cause of the sinking.