Accepted author manuscript, 331 KB, PDF document
Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Bayesian detection of abnormal segments in multiple time series
AU - Bardwell, Lawrence
AU - Fearnhead, Paul
PY - 2017/1
Y1 - 2017/1
N2 - We present a novel Bayesian approach to analysing multiple time-series with the aim of detecting abnormal regions. These are regions where the properties of the data change from some normal or baseline behaviour. We allow for the possibility that such changes will only be present in a, potentially small, subset of the time-series. We develop a general model for this problem, and show how it is possible to accurately and efficiently perform Bayesian inference, based upon recursions that enable independent sampling from the posterior distribution. A motivating application for this problem comes from detecting copy number variation (CNVs), using data from multiple individuals. Pooling information across individuals can increase the power of detecting CNVs, but often a specific CNV will only be present in a small subset of the individuals. We evaluate the Bayesian method on both simulated and real CNV data, and give evidence that this approach is more accurate than a recently proposed method for analysing such data.
AB - We present a novel Bayesian approach to analysing multiple time-series with the aim of detecting abnormal regions. These are regions where the properties of the data change from some normal or baseline behaviour. We allow for the possibility that such changes will only be present in a, potentially small, subset of the time-series. We develop a general model for this problem, and show how it is possible to accurately and efficiently perform Bayesian inference, based upon recursions that enable independent sampling from the posterior distribution. A motivating application for this problem comes from detecting copy number variation (CNVs), using data from multiple individuals. Pooling information across individuals can increase the power of detecting CNVs, but often a specific CNV will only be present in a small subset of the individuals. We evaluate the Bayesian method on both simulated and real CNV data, and give evidence that this approach is more accurate than a recently proposed method for analysing such data.
KW - stat.AP
KW - stat.CO
KW - BARD
KW - Changepoint Detection
KW - Copy Number Variation
KW - PASS
U2 - 10.1214/16-BA998
DO - 10.1214/16-BA998
M3 - Journal article
VL - 12
SP - 193
EP - 218
JO - Bayesian Analysis
JF - Bayesian Analysis
SN - 1936-0975
IS - 1
ER -