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Comparison of Arctic and Antarctic Stratospheric Climates in Chemistry Versus No-Chemistry Climate Models

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  • Olaf Morgenstern
  • Douglas E. Kinnison
  • Michael Mills
  • Martine Michou
  • Larry W. Horowitz
  • Pu Lin
  • Makoto Deushi
  • Kohei Yoshida
  • Fiona M. O’Connor
  • Yongming Tang
  • N. Luke Abraham
  • James Keeble
  • Fraser Dennison
  • Eugene Rozanov
  • Tatiana Egorova
  • Timofei Sukhodolov
  • Guang Zeng
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Article numbere2022JD037123
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>27/10/2022
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Issue number20
Volume127
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Using nine chemistry-climate and eight associated no-chemistry models, we investigate the persistence and timing of cold episodes occurring in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere during the period 1980–2014. We find systematic differences in behavior between members of these model pairs. In a first group of chemistry models whose dynamical configurations mirror their no-chemistry counterparts, we find an increased persistence of such cold polar vortices, such that these cold episodes often start earlier and last longer, relative to the times of occurrence of the lowest temperatures. Also the date of occurrence of the lowest temperatures, both in the Arctic and the Antarctic, is often delayed by 1–3 weeks in chemistry models, versus their no-chemistry counterparts. This behavior exacerbates a widespread problem occurring in most or all models, a delayed occurrence, in the median, of the most anomalously cold day during such cold winters. In a second group of model pairs there are differences beyond just ozone chemistry. In particular, here the chemistry models feature more levels in the stratosphere, a raised model top, and differences in non-orographic gravity wave drag versus their no-chemistry counterparts. Such additional dynamical differences can completely mask the above influence of ozone chemistry. The results point toward a need to retune chemistry-climate models versus their no-chemistry counterparts.

Bibliographic note

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Commonwealth of Australia and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King’s Printer for Scotland. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.