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  • KJB Leonardo Lecture final revision

    Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 07/04/2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761

    Accepted author manuscript, 653 KB, PDF document

    Available under license: CC BY-NC: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

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Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Published
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>09/2016
<mark>Journal</mark>Hydrological Sciences Journal
Issue number9
Volume61
Number of pages4
Pages (from-to)1652-1665
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date7/04/15
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.

Bibliographic note

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 07/04/2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761