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    Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 07/04/2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761

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Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication. / Beven, Keith John.
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 61, No. 9, 09.2016, p. 1652-1665.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Beven, KJ 2016, 'Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication', Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 61, no. 9, pp. 1652-1665. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761

APA

Beven, K. J. (2016). Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(9), 1652-1665. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761

Vancouver

Beven KJ. Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2016 Sept;61(9):1652-1665. Epub 2015 Apr 7. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761

Author

Beven, Keith John. / Facets of uncertainty : epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication. In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2016 ; Vol. 61, No. 9. pp. 1652-1665.

Bibtex

@article{19130c3847724f1db1863e4a810f73a8,
title = "Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication",
abstract = "This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.",
keywords = "Hydrological modelling, uncertainty estimation, non-stationarity, epistemic uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty, disinformation",
author = "Beven, {Keith John}",
note = "This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 07/04/2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761",
year = "2016",
month = sep,
doi = "10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761",
language = "English",
volume = "61",
pages = "1652--1665",
journal = "Hydrological Sciences Journal",
issn = "0262-6667",
publisher = "TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD",
number = "9",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Facets of uncertainty

T2 - epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication

AU - Beven, Keith John

N1 - This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 07/04/2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761

PY - 2016/9

Y1 - 2016/9

N2 - This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.

AB - This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.

KW - Hydrological modelling

KW - uncertainty estimation

KW - non-stationarity

KW - epistemic uncertainty

KW - aleatory uncertainty

KW - disinformation

U2 - 10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761

DO - 10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761

M3 - Journal article

VL - 61

SP - 1652

EP - 1665

JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal

JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal

SN - 0262-6667

IS - 9

ER -