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Glitch or Anti-glitch: A Bayesian View

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Article numberL41
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>21/03/2014
<mark>Journal</mark>Astrophysical Journal Letters
Issue number2
Volume784
Number of pages4
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

The sudden spin-down in the rotation of magnetar 1E 2259+586 observed by Archibald et al. was a rare event. However, that particular event, referred to as an anti-glitch, was followed by another event, which Archibald et al. suggested could either be a conventional glitch or another anti-glitch. Although there is no accompanying radiation activity or pulse profile change, there is decisive evidence of the existence of a second timing event, judging from the timing data. We apply a Bayesian Model Selection to quantitatively determine which of these possibilities better explains the observed data. We show that the observed data strongly support the presence of two successive anti-glitches with a Bayes factor, often called the odds ratio, greater than 40. Furthermore, we show that the second anti-glitch has an associated frequency change Δν of –8.2 × 10–8 Hz. We discuss the implications of these results for possible physical mechanisms behind this anti-glitch.