Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Letter › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Letter › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Glitch or Anti-glitch
T2 - A Bayesian View
AU - Hu, Y.-M.
AU - Pitkin, M.
AU - Heng, Ik Siong
AU - Hendry, M. A.
PY - 2014/3/21
Y1 - 2014/3/21
N2 - The sudden spin-down in the rotation of magnetar 1E 2259+586 observed by Archibald et al. was a rare event. However, that particular event, referred to as an anti-glitch, was followed by another event, which Archibald et al. suggested could either be a conventional glitch or another anti-glitch. Although there is no accompanying radiation activity or pulse profile change, there is decisive evidence of the existence of a second timing event, judging from the timing data. We apply a Bayesian Model Selection to quantitatively determine which of these possibilities better explains the observed data. We show that the observed data strongly support the presence of two successive anti-glitches with a Bayes factor, often called the odds ratio, greater than 40. Furthermore, we show that the second anti-glitch has an associated frequency change Δν of –8.2 × 10–8 Hz. We discuss the implications of these results for possible physical mechanisms behind this anti-glitch.
AB - The sudden spin-down in the rotation of magnetar 1E 2259+586 observed by Archibald et al. was a rare event. However, that particular event, referred to as an anti-glitch, was followed by another event, which Archibald et al. suggested could either be a conventional glitch or another anti-glitch. Although there is no accompanying radiation activity or pulse profile change, there is decisive evidence of the existence of a second timing event, judging from the timing data. We apply a Bayesian Model Selection to quantitatively determine which of these possibilities better explains the observed data. We show that the observed data strongly support the presence of two successive anti-glitches with a Bayes factor, often called the odds ratio, greater than 40. Furthermore, we show that the second anti-glitch has an associated frequency change Δν of –8.2 × 10–8 Hz. We discuss the implications of these results for possible physical mechanisms behind this anti-glitch.
KW - methods: statistical
KW - pulsars: general
KW - pulsars: individual: 1E 2259+586
KW - stars: magnetars
U2 - 10.1088/2041-8205/784/2/L41
DO - 10.1088/2041-8205/784/2/L41
M3 - Letter
VL - 784
JO - Astrophysical Journal Letters
JF - Astrophysical Journal Letters
SN - 2041-8205
IS - 2
M1 - L41
ER -