TY - JOUR

T1 - How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management?

AU - Knotters, M.

AU - Bokhove, O.

AU - Lamb, Rob

AU - Poortvliet, P.M.

PY - 2024/1/24

Y1 - 2024/1/24

N2 - Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible, and utilised in efficient decision making in flood risk management (FRM). We elaborated on the metaphor of uncertainty as a monster. We recommend two strategies to cope with the uncertainty monster to support efficient decision making in FRM: monster adaptation and monster assimilation. We present three cases to illustrate these strategies. We argue that these strategies benefit from improving structure and reducing complexity of decision problems. We discuss ways to involve decision makers in FRM, and how communication strategies can be responsive to their informational needs.

AB - Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible, and utilised in efficient decision making in flood risk management (FRM). We elaborated on the metaphor of uncertainty as a monster. We recommend two strategies to cope with the uncertainty monster to support efficient decision making in FRM: monster adaptation and monster assimilation. We present three cases to illustrate these strategies. We argue that these strategies benefit from improving structure and reducing complexity of decision problems. We discuss ways to involve decision makers in FRM, and how communication strategies can be responsive to their informational needs.

U2 - 10.1017/wat.2024.4

DO - 10.1017/wat.2024.4

M3 - Journal article

VL - 2

JO - Cambridge Prisms: Water

JF - Cambridge Prisms: Water

SN - 2755-1776

M1 - e6

ER -