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Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change. / Ockenden, Mary Catherine; Hollaway, Michael John; Beven, Keith John et al.

In: Nature Communications, Vol. 8, 161, 31.07.2017.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Ockenden, MC, Hollaway, MJ, Beven, KJ, Collins, A, Evans, R, Falloon, P, Forber, KJ, Hiscock, K, Kahana, R, Macleod, K, Tych, W, Villamizar, M, Wearing, CL, Withers, P, Zhou, J, Barker, PA, Burke, S, Freer, J, Johnes, P, Snell, M, Surridge, BWJ & Haygarth, PM 2017, 'Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change', Nature Communications, vol. 8, 161. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

APA

Ockenden, M. C., Hollaway, M. J., Beven, K. J., Collins, A., Evans, R., Falloon, P., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K., Kahana, R., Macleod, K., Tych, W., Villamizar, M., Wearing, C. L., Withers, P., Zhou, J., Barker, P. A., Burke, S., Freer, J., Johnes, P., ... Haygarth, P. M. (2017). Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change. Nature Communications, 8, [161]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

Vancouver

Ockenden MC, Hollaway MJ, Beven KJ, Collins A, Evans R, Falloon P et al. Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change. Nature Communications. 2017 Jul 31;8:161. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

Author

Ockenden, Mary Catherine ; Hollaway, Michael John ; Beven, Keith John et al. / Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change. In: Nature Communications. 2017 ; Vol. 8.

Bibtex

@article{73e92f2895cf4bf4a9b8be956944ee5e,
title = "Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change",
abstract = "Phosphorus (P) losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future P transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high frequency P flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two P transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter P loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large scale agricultural changes (e.g. 20-80% reduction in P inputs). ",
keywords = "Climate-change adaptation, Element cycles, Environmental health, Hydrology",
author = "Ockenden, {Mary Catherine} and Hollaway, {Michael John} and Beven, {Keith John} and Adrian Collins and Robert Evans and Peter Falloon and Forber, {Kirsty Jessica} and Kevin Hiscock and Ron Kahana and Kit Macleod and Wlodzimierz Tych and Martha Villamizar and Wearing, {Catherine Louise} and Paul Withers and Jian Zhou and Barker, {Philip Anthony} and Sean Burke and Jim Freer and Penny Johnes and Maria Snell and Surridge, {Benjamin William James} and Haygarth, {Philip Matthew}",
year = "2017",
month = jul,
day = "31",
doi = "10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0",
language = "English",
volume = "8",
journal = "Nature Communications",
issn = "2041-1723",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

AU - Ockenden, Mary Catherine

AU - Hollaway, Michael John

AU - Beven, Keith John

AU - Collins, Adrian

AU - Evans, Robert

AU - Falloon, Peter

AU - Forber, Kirsty Jessica

AU - Hiscock, Kevin

AU - Kahana, Ron

AU - Macleod, Kit

AU - Tych, Wlodzimierz

AU - Villamizar, Martha

AU - Wearing, Catherine Louise

AU - Withers, Paul

AU - Zhou, Jian

AU - Barker, Philip Anthony

AU - Burke, Sean

AU - Freer, Jim

AU - Johnes, Penny

AU - Snell, Maria

AU - Surridge, Benjamin William James

AU - Haygarth, Philip Matthew

PY - 2017/7/31

Y1 - 2017/7/31

N2 - Phosphorus (P) losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future P transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high frequency P flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two P transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter P loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large scale agricultural changes (e.g. 20-80% reduction in P inputs).

AB - Phosphorus (P) losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future P transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high frequency P flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two P transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter P loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large scale agricultural changes (e.g. 20-80% reduction in P inputs).

KW - Climate-change adaptation

KW - Element cycles

KW - Environmental health

KW - Hydrology

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

DO - 10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

M3 - Journal article

VL - 8

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

M1 - 161

ER -