Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review
Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review
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TY - GEN
T1 - Modeling of Waiting Lists for Chronic Heart Failure in the Wake of the Covid-19 Pandemic
AU - Wise, Alan
AU - Heib, Alexander
AU - Morgan, Lucy
AU - Currie, Christine
AU - Champneys, Alan
AU - Nadarajah, Ramesh
AU - Gale, Chris
AU - Mamas, Mamas
PY - 2022/2/23
Y1 - 2022/2/23
N2 - The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted access to health services globally for patients with non-Covid-19 conditions. We consider the condition of heart failure and describe a discrete event simulation model built to describe the impact of the pandemic and associated societal lockdowns on access to diagnosis procedures. The number of patients diagnosed with heart failure fell during the pandemic and in the UK, the number of GP referrals for diagnostic tests in November 2020 were at 20% of their pre-pandemic levels. While the numbers in the system have fallen clinicians believe that this is not reflective of a change in need, suggesting that many patients are delaying accessing care during pandemic peaks. While the effect of this is uncertain, it is thought that this could have a significant impact on patient survival. Initial results reproduce the observed increase in the number of patients waiting.
AB - The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted access to health services globally for patients with non-Covid-19 conditions. We consider the condition of heart failure and describe a discrete event simulation model built to describe the impact of the pandemic and associated societal lockdowns on access to diagnosis procedures. The number of patients diagnosed with heart failure fell during the pandemic and in the UK, the number of GP referrals for diagnostic tests in November 2020 were at 20% of their pre-pandemic levels. While the numbers in the system have fallen clinicians believe that this is not reflective of a change in need, suggesting that many patients are delaying accessing care during pandemic peaks. While the effect of this is uncertain, it is thought that this could have a significant impact on patient survival. Initial results reproduce the observed increase in the number of patients waiting.
U2 - 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715505
DO - 10.1109/WSC52266.2021.9715505
M3 - Conference contribution/Paper
SN - 9781665433129
T3 - Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
SP - 1
EP - 11
BT - 2021 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2021
PB - IEEE
T2 - Virtual Forum for Knowledge Exchange in Mathematical Sciences (V-KEMS) study group on ModelingSolutions to the Impact of Covid-19 on Cardiovascular Waiting Lists
Y2 - 2 February 2021 through 4 February 2021
ER -