Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > Regional features of long-term exposure to PM2....

Links

Text available via DOI:

View graph of relations

Regional features of long-term exposure to PM2.5 air quality over Asia under ssp scenarios based on CMIP6 models

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
  • Sungbo Shim
  • Hyunmin Sung
  • Sanghoon Kwon
  • Jisun Kim
  • Jaehee Lee
  • Minah Sun
  • Jaeyoung Song
  • Jongchul Ha
  • Younghwa Byun
  • Yeonhee Kim
  • Steven T. Turnock
  • David S. Stevenson
  • Robert J. Allen
  • Fiona M. O’connor
  • Joao C. Teixeira
  • Jonny Williams
  • Ben Johnson
  • James Keeble
  • Jane Mulcahy
  • Guang Zeng
Close
Article number6817
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>1/07/2021
<mark>Journal</mark>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Issue number13
Volume18
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date25/06/21
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM2.5, it may also contribute to the warming of near-and mid-future climates.

Bibliographic note

Publisher Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.