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Regional features of long-term exposure to PM2.5 air quality over Asia under ssp scenarios based on CMIP6 models

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Regional features of long-term exposure to PM2.5 air quality over Asia under ssp scenarios based on CMIP6 models. / Shim, Sungbo; Sung, Hyunmin; Kwon, Sanghoon et al.
In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 18, No. 13, 6817, 01.07.2021.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Shim, S, Sung, H, Kwon, S, Kim, J, Lee, J, Sun, M, Song, J, Ha, J, Byun, Y, Kim, Y, Turnock, ST, Stevenson, DS, Allen, RJ, O’connor, FM, Teixeira, JC, Williams, J, Johnson, B, Keeble, J, Mulcahy, J & Zeng, G 2021, 'Regional features of long-term exposure to PM2.5 air quality over Asia under ssp scenarios based on CMIP6 models', International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 18, no. 13, 6817. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136817

APA

Shim, S., Sung, H., Kwon, S., Kim, J., Lee, J., Sun, M., Song, J., Ha, J., Byun, Y., Kim, Y., Turnock, S. T., Stevenson, D. S., Allen, R. J., O’connor, F. M., Teixeira, J. C., Williams, J., Johnson, B., Keeble, J., Mulcahy, J., & Zeng, G. (2021). Regional features of long-term exposure to PM2.5 air quality over Asia under ssp scenarios based on CMIP6 models. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(13), Article 6817. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136817

Vancouver

Shim S, Sung H, Kwon S, Kim J, Lee J, Sun M et al. Regional features of long-term exposure to PM2.5 air quality over Asia under ssp scenarios based on CMIP6 models. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021 Jul 1;18(13):6817. Epub 2021 Jun 25. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18136817

Author

Shim, Sungbo ; Sung, Hyunmin ; Kwon, Sanghoon et al. / Regional features of long-term exposure to PM2.5 air quality over Asia under ssp scenarios based on CMIP6 models. In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021 ; Vol. 18, No. 13.

Bibtex

@article{4bf4f8b186a54b099e55f90beeb2109d,
title = "Regional features of long-term exposure to PM2.5 air quality over Asia under ssp scenarios based on CMIP6 models",
abstract = "This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM2.5, it may also contribute to the warming of near-and mid-future climates.",
keywords = "Air quality index, Asia, Climate changes, CMIP6, PM, SSP scenarios",
author = "Sungbo Shim and Hyunmin Sung and Sanghoon Kwon and Jisun Kim and Jaehee Lee and Minah Sun and Jaeyoung Song and Jongchul Ha and Younghwa Byun and Yeonhee Kim and Turnock, {Steven T.} and Stevenson, {David S.} and Allen, {Robert J.} and O{\textquoteright}connor, {Fiona M.} and Teixeira, {Joao C.} and Jonny Williams and Ben Johnson and James Keeble and Jane Mulcahy and Guang Zeng",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.",
year = "2021",
month = jul,
day = "1",
doi = "10.3390/ijerph18136817",
language = "English",
volume = "18",
journal = "International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health",
issn = "1661-7827",
publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)",
number = "13",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Regional features of long-term exposure to PM2.5 air quality over Asia under ssp scenarios based on CMIP6 models

AU - Shim, Sungbo

AU - Sung, Hyunmin

AU - Kwon, Sanghoon

AU - Kim, Jisun

AU - Lee, Jaehee

AU - Sun, Minah

AU - Song, Jaeyoung

AU - Ha, Jongchul

AU - Byun, Younghwa

AU - Kim, Yeonhee

AU - Turnock, Steven T.

AU - Stevenson, David S.

AU - Allen, Robert J.

AU - O’connor, Fiona M.

AU - Teixeira, Joao C.

AU - Williams, Jonny

AU - Johnson, Ben

AU - Keeble, James

AU - Mulcahy, Jane

AU - Zeng, Guang

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

PY - 2021/7/1

Y1 - 2021/7/1

N2 - This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM2.5, it may also contribute to the warming of near-and mid-future climates.

AB - This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM2.5, it may also contribute to the warming of near-and mid-future climates.

KW - Air quality index

KW - Asia

KW - Climate changes

KW - CMIP6

KW - PM

KW - SSP scenarios

U2 - 10.3390/ijerph18136817

DO - 10.3390/ijerph18136817

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34201984

AN - SCOPUS:85108450675

VL - 18

JO - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

JF - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

SN - 1661-7827

IS - 13

M1 - 6817

ER -