Rights statement: © 2017 Project Euclid
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Rights statement: © 2017 Project Euclid
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Final published version
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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Statistical downscaling for future extreme wave heights in the North Sea
AU - Towe, Ross Paul
AU - Eastoe, Emma Frances
AU - Tawn, Jonathan Angus
AU - Jonathan, Philip
N1 - © 2017 Project Euclid
PY - 2017/9/1
Y1 - 2017/9/1
N2 - For safe offshore operations accurate knowledge of the extreme oceanographic conditions is required. We develop a multi-step statistical downscaling algorithm using data from low resolution global climate model (GCM) and local-scale hindcast data to make predictions of the extreme wave climate in the next 50 year period at locations in the North Sea. The GCM is unable to produce wave data accurately so instead we use its 3-hourly wind speed and direction data. By exploiting the relationships between wind characteristics and wave heights, a downscaling approach is developed to relate the large and local-scale data sets and hence future changes in wind characteristics can be translated into changes in extreme wave distributions. We assess the performance of the methods using within sample testing and apply the method to derive future design levels over the northern North Sea.
AB - For safe offshore operations accurate knowledge of the extreme oceanographic conditions is required. We develop a multi-step statistical downscaling algorithm using data from low resolution global climate model (GCM) and local-scale hindcast data to make predictions of the extreme wave climate in the next 50 year period at locations in the North Sea. The GCM is unable to produce wave data accurately so instead we use its 3-hourly wind speed and direction data. By exploiting the relationships between wind characteristics and wave heights, a downscaling approach is developed to relate the large and local-scale data sets and hence future changes in wind characteristics can be translated into changes in extreme wave distributions. We assess the performance of the methods using within sample testing and apply the method to derive future design levels over the northern North Sea.
U2 - 10.1214/17-AOAS1084
DO - 10.1214/17-AOAS1084
M3 - Journal article
VL - 11
SP - 2375
EP - 2403
JO - Annals of Applied Statistics
JF - Annals of Applied Statistics
SN - 1932-6157
IS - 4
ER -