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Testing models of complexity aversion

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

E-pub ahead of print
Article number102354
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>30/06/2025
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics
Volume116
Publication StatusE-pub ahead of print
Early online date15/03/25
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

In this study we aim to test behavioural models of complexity aversion. In this framework, complexity is defined as a function of the number of outcomes in a lottery. Using Bayesian inference techniques, we re-analyse data from a lottery-choice experiment. We quantitatively specify and estimate adaptive toolbox models of cognition, which we rigorously test against popular expectation-based models; modified to account for complexity aversion. We find that for the majority of the subjects, a toolbox model performs best both in-sample, and with regards to its predictive capacity out-of-sample, suggesting that individuals resort to heuristics in the presense of extreme complexity.