Accepted author manuscript, 405 KB, PDF document
Available under license: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Article number | 102354 |
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<mark>Journal publication date</mark> | 30/06/2025 |
<mark>Journal</mark> | Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics |
Volume | 116 |
Publication Status | E-pub ahead of print |
Early online date | 15/03/25 |
<mark>Original language</mark> | English |
In this study we aim to test behavioural models of complexity aversion. In this framework, complexity is defined as a function of the number of outcomes in a lottery. Using Bayesian inference techniques, we re-analyse data from a lottery-choice experiment. We quantitatively specify and estimate adaptive toolbox models of cognition, which we rigorously test against popular expectation-based models; modified to account for complexity aversion. We find that for the majority of the subjects, a toolbox model performs best both in-sample, and with regards to its predictive capacity out-of-sample, suggesting that individuals resort to heuristics in the presense of extreme complexity.