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The distribution and direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations over 1-60 minute periods

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSNConference contribution/Paperpeer-review

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The distribution and direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations over 1-60 minute periods. / Rogers, Neil; Wild, Jim; Eastoe, Emma.

2020 XXXIIIrd General Assembly and Scientific Symposium of the International Union of Radio Science. IEEE, 2020. p. 1-4.

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSNConference contribution/Paperpeer-review

Harvard

Rogers, N, Wild, J & Eastoe, E 2020, The distribution and direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations over 1-60 minute periods. in 2020 XXXIIIrd General Assembly and Scientific Symposium of the International Union of Radio Science. IEEE, pp. 1-4, 33rd URSI General Assembly and Scientific Symposium 2020, Rome, Italy, 29/08/20. https://doi.org/10.23919/URSIGASS49373.2020.9232328

APA

Rogers, N., Wild, J., & Eastoe, E. (2020). The distribution and direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations over 1-60 minute periods. In 2020 XXXIIIrd General Assembly and Scientific Symposium of the International Union of Radio Science (pp. 1-4). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.23919/URSIGASS49373.2020.9232328

Vancouver

Rogers N, Wild J, Eastoe E. The distribution and direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations over 1-60 minute periods. In 2020 XXXIIIrd General Assembly and Scientific Symposium of the International Union of Radio Science. IEEE. 2020. p. 1-4 https://doi.org/10.23919/URSIGASS49373.2020.9232328

Author

Rogers, Neil ; Wild, Jim ; Eastoe, Emma. / The distribution and direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations over 1-60 minute periods. 2020 XXXIIIrd General Assembly and Scientific Symposium of the International Union of Radio Science. IEEE, 2020. pp. 1-4

Bibtex

@inproceedings{b101e5e641364e94b321ff1f462bdf37,
title = "The distribution and direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations over 1-60 minute periods",
abstract = "We present a statistical climatological study of extreme fluctuations in the horizontal geomagnetic field (dB/dt), generated at the Earth{\textquoteright}s surface by extreme electrical currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. Applying techniques from Extreme Value Theory we predict the magnitude of |dB/dt| for return periods (RP) from 5 to 500 years. Results presented for both ramp changes and RMS variations over periods from 1–60 minutes show considerable variation in magnitude and rate of occurrence when considered as functions of magnetic latitude, local time, and season. The direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations is strongly isotropic at lower latitudes, but this changes with timescale. A technique for improving return level estimates by combining Generalised Pareto tail distributions from discrete directional sectors produces return levels that are higher at low geomagnetic latitudes but higher at mid to high latitudes. ",
keywords = "Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), extreme value theory, space weather",
author = "Neil Rogers and Jim Wild and Emma Eastoe",
note = "{\textcopyright}2020 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the URSI Board, together with the GASS 2020 Local Organizing Committee decided to postpone the URSI 2020 General Assembly and Scientific Symposium by 1 year. However, all authors of accepted papers were offered the possibility to either withdrawn their paper or to publish their work in the GASS 2020 Proceedings.; 33rd URSI General Assembly and Scientific Symposium 2020, URSI GASS 2020 ; Conference date: 29-08-2020 Through 05-09-2020",
year = "2020",
month = oct,
day = "20",
doi = "10.23919/URSIGASS49373.2020.9232328",
language = "English",
pages = "1--4",
booktitle = "2020 XXXIIIrd General Assembly and Scientific Symposium of the International Union of Radio Science",
publisher = "IEEE",
url = "http://www.ursi.org/proceedings/procGA20/programme.html",

}

RIS

TY - GEN

T1 - The distribution and direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations over 1-60 minute periods

AU - Rogers, Neil

AU - Wild, Jim

AU - Eastoe, Emma

N1 - Conference code: 33

PY - 2020/10/20

Y1 - 2020/10/20

N2 - We present a statistical climatological study of extreme fluctuations in the horizontal geomagnetic field (dB/dt), generated at the Earth’s surface by extreme electrical currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. Applying techniques from Extreme Value Theory we predict the magnitude of |dB/dt| for return periods (RP) from 5 to 500 years. Results presented for both ramp changes and RMS variations over periods from 1–60 minutes show considerable variation in magnitude and rate of occurrence when considered as functions of magnetic latitude, local time, and season. The direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations is strongly isotropic at lower latitudes, but this changes with timescale. A technique for improving return level estimates by combining Generalised Pareto tail distributions from discrete directional sectors produces return levels that are higher at low geomagnetic latitudes but higher at mid to high latitudes.

AB - We present a statistical climatological study of extreme fluctuations in the horizontal geomagnetic field (dB/dt), generated at the Earth’s surface by extreme electrical currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. Applying techniques from Extreme Value Theory we predict the magnitude of |dB/dt| for return periods (RP) from 5 to 500 years. Results presented for both ramp changes and RMS variations over periods from 1–60 minutes show considerable variation in magnitude and rate of occurrence when considered as functions of magnetic latitude, local time, and season. The direction of extreme geomagnetic fluctuations is strongly isotropic at lower latitudes, but this changes with timescale. A technique for improving return level estimates by combining Generalised Pareto tail distributions from discrete directional sectors produces return levels that are higher at low geomagnetic latitudes but higher at mid to high latitudes.

KW - Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC)

KW - extreme value theory

KW - space weather

U2 - 10.23919/URSIGASS49373.2020.9232328

DO - 10.23919/URSIGASS49373.2020.9232328

M3 - Conference contribution/Paper

SP - 1

EP - 4

BT - 2020 XXXIIIrd General Assembly and Scientific Symposium of the International Union of Radio Science

PB - IEEE

T2 - 33rd URSI General Assembly and Scientific Symposium 2020

Y2 - 29 August 2020 through 5 September 2020

ER -