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Two-Step Drawing From Urns

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Published
Publication date2005
Host publicationOperations Research Proceedings 2004
EditorsHein Fleurin, Dick den Hertog, Peter Kort
PublisherSpringer
Pages313-318
Number of pages6
ISBN (electronic)9783540276791
ISBN (print)9783540242741
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Publication series

NameOperations Research Proceedings
PublisherSpringer
ISSN (Print)0721-5924

Abstract

Consider the following situation of two-step shortlisting: two experts Alice and Bob are faced with a large number of alternatives which they can only observe imprecisely. They have to choose one of the alternatives, without knowing which one is best. Alice first compiles a shortlist of alternatives by choosing her k best observations. Bob then chooses his best observation among the shortlisted alternatives. Previous research showed that this procedure sometimes yielded worse results than if a single expert made the entire decision himself. Here, we consider an urn containing n — 1 homogeneous balls and one ball with larger weight. When drawing balls at random from the urn, the probability of drawing any one ball is proportional to its weight. Alice draws k balls and puts them in another urn, from which Bob then draws a single ball. Which value of k maximizes the probability that Bob draws the distinguished ball?