Rights statement: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2016 American Geophysical Union
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Final published version, 1.03 MB, PDF document
Available under license: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Using citizen science reports to define the equatorial extent of auroral visibility
AU - Case, Nathan
AU - MacDonald, Elizabeth A.
AU - Viereck, Rodney
N1 - An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2016 American Geophysical Union
PY - 2016/3
Y1 - 2016/3
N2 - An aurora may often be viewed hundreds of kilometers equatorward of the auroral oval owing to its altitude. As such, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) Aurora Forecast product provides a “view line” to demonstrate the equatorial extent of auroral visibility, assuming that it is sufficiently bright and high in altitude. The view line in the SWPC product is based upon the latitude of the brightest aurora, for each hemisphere, as specified by the real-time oval variation, assessment, tracking, intensity, and online nowcasting (OVATION) Prime (2010) aurora precipitation model. In this study, we utilize nearly 500 citizen science auroral reports to compare with the view line provided by an updated SWPC aurora forecast product using auroral precipitation data from OVATION Prime (2013). The citizen science observations were recorded during March and April 2015 using the Aurorasaurus platform and cover one large geomagnetic storm and several smaller events. We find that this updated SWPC view line is conservative in its estimate and that the aurora is often viewable further equatorward than is indicated by the forecast. By using the citizen reports to modify the scaling parameters used to link the OVATION Prime (2013) model to the view line, we produce a new view line estimate that more accurately represents the equatorial extent of visible aurora. An OVATION Prime (2013) energy flux-based equatorial boundary view line is also developed and is found to provide the best overall agreement with the citizen science reports, with an accuracy of 91%.
AB - An aurora may often be viewed hundreds of kilometers equatorward of the auroral oval owing to its altitude. As such, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) Aurora Forecast product provides a “view line” to demonstrate the equatorial extent of auroral visibility, assuming that it is sufficiently bright and high in altitude. The view line in the SWPC product is based upon the latitude of the brightest aurora, for each hemisphere, as specified by the real-time oval variation, assessment, tracking, intensity, and online nowcasting (OVATION) Prime (2010) aurora precipitation model. In this study, we utilize nearly 500 citizen science auroral reports to compare with the view line provided by an updated SWPC aurora forecast product using auroral precipitation data from OVATION Prime (2013). The citizen science observations were recorded during March and April 2015 using the Aurorasaurus platform and cover one large geomagnetic storm and several smaller events. We find that this updated SWPC view line is conservative in its estimate and that the aurora is often viewable further equatorward than is indicated by the forecast. By using the citizen reports to modify the scaling parameters used to link the OVATION Prime (2013) model to the view line, we produce a new view line estimate that more accurately represents the equatorial extent of visible aurora. An OVATION Prime (2013) energy flux-based equatorial boundary view line is also developed and is found to provide the best overall agreement with the citizen science reports, with an accuracy of 91%.
U2 - 10.1002/2015SW001320
DO - 10.1002/2015SW001320
M3 - Journal article
VL - 14
SP - 198
EP - 209
JO - Space Weather
JF - Space Weather
SN - 1539-4956
IS - 3
ER -